Efforts to resume peace talks over the Iran war stalled after US President Donald Trump canceled a planned trip by his top envoys and the Islamic Republic said it won't negotiate so long as it's being threatened , according to Bloomberg. Trump on Saturday told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, and later told reporters that Iran "offered a lot, but not enough" , the Japan Times reported.

Trump said talks will continue by phone after Iran declined to meet directly with American negotiators amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz , CNN reported. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that his government will not enter negotiations while the US maintains a blockade on Iranian ports , according to Al Jazeera. While a ceasefire has mostly held since early April, both countries are maintaining a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, making the key energy chokepoint virtually impassable. The disruption to about a fifth of the world's oil flows has been dubbed the biggest supply shock in history by the International Energy Agency , Bloomberg noted.

Oil markets reacted swiftly to the diplomatic setback. According to market data, WTI Crude traded at $71.50 per barrel on Friday, up 0.6%, while Brent Crude stood at $75.20 per barrel, up 0.5%. Benchmark crude-oil prices closed at $105.33 a barrel on Friday, compared with $72.48 on the day before the conflict started , Bloomberg reported in a separate article covering the broader market impact.

Goldman Sachs Revises Oil Outlook Higher

Goldman's updated forecasts represent a significant hawkish shift on oil, with the Q4 Brent target lifted to $90/bbl from $80/bbl and WTI to $83/bbl from $75/bbl , according to investingLive. Goldman trimmed its second-quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel from $99, and its WTI forecast to $87 per barrel from $91, citing a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium and early signs of improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH, we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI," Goldman's commodity analysts wrote , according to Reuters and TheStreet.

The bank said risks to its price forecasts remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the potential for longer-lasting disruptions and more persistent crude production losses. In a severe case where the ceasefire doesn't hold and with persistent Middle East production losses of around 2 million barrels per day, Brent could average closer to $115 in the fourth quarter , Goldman noted.

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Flows to Europe

Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the coordinated release of over 400 million barrels of oil from global strategic reserves to combat high energy prices amid the Middle East turmoil. The U.S. was to contribute approximately 172 million barrels of this total, with the release taking place over 120 days starting late March 2026 to help lower gasoline costs. And now reports have emerged that the Trump administration has authorized the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), with Europe emerging as a key buyer , OilPrice.com reported.

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. has so far released 79.7 million barrels to 12 companies, with nearly 50 million barrels going to UK's Vortexa Ltd. Global trading houses and Big Oil companies have been the main recipients of the oil, with Trafigura receiving 21.4 million barrels; Shell Plc has received 18.1 million while Marathon Oil and BP Plc have purchased 9.7 million barrels , according to OilPrice.com. U.S. sour crude from the SPR is being offered to European buyers at discounts of about $5 per barrel relative to local grades, providing some relief as Brent crude remains elevated near $105 per barrel. The oil is being sold on an exchange basis, to be returned at a later date , the report added.

Canada Opens First Battery-Grade Lithium Refinery

In a development aimed at reducing North American dependence on Chinese critical mineral processing, Mangrove Lithium's Delta, BC facility is the first commercial electrochemical lithium refinery in North America, with capacity to produce 1,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium a year , OilPrice.com reported. The Honourable Jill McKnight, Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence, joined Mangrove Lithium for the ribbon cutting of North America's first commercial electrochemical lithium refining facility in Delta, British Columbia. The facility will produce enough battery-grade lithium for approximately 25,000 electric vehicles per year , according to Natural Resources Canada.

China still controls roughly half of the global lithium market, and the Canadian government is backing Mangrove as part of a broader critical minerals push under PM Mark Carney , OilPrice.com noted. "Canada is leveraging our critical mineral resources — including our lithium — to unlock supply chain security, job creation and clean energy innovation," said Tim Hodgson, Canadian Minister of Energy and Natural Resources. "Mangrove Lithium's new headquarters will house North America's first commercial electrochemical lithium refining facility — exactly the type of cutting-edge, sovereign Canadian project we need" , according to OilPrice.com.

A planned Eastern Canada expansion would scale output to support up to 500,000 EVs annually by refining lithium and processing spodumene sourced from Canadian mines , the report added.

LNG Market Faces Structural Demand Destruction

The impact of the war in the Middle East could lead to structural demand destruction on the world's natural gas markets, the head of the Gas Exporting Countries' Forum warned in the latest sign of the far-reaching impacts of the hostilities between the United States and Israel, and Iran. The war has already disrupted international gas flows because of the Strait of Hormuz closure and the strikes on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf , OilPrice.com reported.

The latest data for Asia suggests that imports of liquefied natural gas are on course to record their lowest monthly level in close to six years, Reuters' Clyde Russell reported this week. The numbers come from Kpler and are evidence of demand destruction resulting from the war , according to OilPrice.com. Asia is set to import some 19.03 million tons of liquefied gas this month, which would be down from 20.69 million tons for March and a seasonal high of 26.34 million tons for December 2025. For China, however, the drop is much more marked, with the April total seen at 3.36 million tons , the report noted.

The disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of March has created unprecedented uncertainty, removing close to 20% of global LNG supply from the market and triggering sharp price increases across key importing regions. During a period of intense volatility in March, natural gas prices in Asia and Europe rose to their highest levels since January 2023 , the IEA reported. According to market data, Henry Hub Natural Gas traded at $3.25 per MMBtu on Friday, down 2.4%.