Brent crude futures climbed above $115 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest level since June 2022, marking an eighth straight session of gains as concerns over global supply intensified.

The June 2026 contract has now gained more than 88% over the past 12 months, lifted by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the ninth week of US-Iran conflict, and Tuesday's surprise announcement that the United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1. According to market data, WTI crude traded at $71.50 per barrel, up 0.6%, while Brent stood at $75.20, up 0.5%.

The United Arab Emirates has announced it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, in a significant blow to the oil cartels.

The UAE was the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' third-biggest producer before the conflict started, accounting for about 12% of its overall supply.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision was taken after a careful look at the regional power's energy strategies, telling Reuters the UAE did not raise the issue with any other country.

Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis, Jorge Leon, said in a statement that losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity "takes a real tool out of the group's hands."

An energy industry source familiar with the decision said the UAE will gradually increase production to supply global markets, once freedom of navigation is restored in the Strait of Hormuz.

Hormuz Blockade Enters Third Month

There is also almost no movement through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital bottleneck that's essentially cut off 20% of the world's oil and gas supply.

Before the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in late February about 3,000 vessels typically passed through the Strait of Hormuz each month, but since the war began, traffic has been reduced to a trickle, with just 154 vessels recorded crossing in the entire month of March.

On 13 April 2026, the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iran following the failure of the Islamabad Talks to end the 2026 Iran war, with the US military saying the blockade had begun on Monday, 13 April 2026 at 10 a.m. ET and will apply only to ships going to and from Iran.

US forces have directed at least 38 vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port since that blockade began, according to US Central Command.

The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $103 per barrel in March, and the EIA expects it to peak in the second quarter of 2026 at $115/b before easing as production shut-ins slowly abate.

The EIA assesses that production shut-ins averaged 7.5 million barrels per day in March, and expects they will increase to a peak of 9.1 million b/d in April before gradually falling over the coming months.

TotalEnergies Profits Surge on Oil Trading

TotalEnergies SE on Wednesday reported $5.4 billion in net profit adjusted for nonrecurring items for the first quarter, up 41 percent from the prior three-month period and 29 percent against Q1 2025 as liquefied natural gas sales volumes increased amid oil volatility.

The earnings surge prompted the French energy giant to raise its dividend for Q1 2026 to EUR 0.9 ($1.05) per share, up 5.9 percent against its previous rate.

Production averaged 2.55 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the January-March 2026 quarter, stable quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year despite war-related shutdowns in Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, with impacted assets accounting for 15 percent of TotalEnergies' production.

The board authorized the continuation of share repurchases up to $1.5 billion in Q2 and confirmed a target of a payout ratio of more than 40 percent over the year.

TotalEnergies expects the war-induced elevated oil price environment to continue into Q2, noting that "the impact of this conflict on global hydrocarbon inventories is leading to the drop of the 2026 surplus scenario that was anticipated at the beginning of the year."

U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Buildout Accelerates

While oil markets grapple with supply disruptions, the U.S. natural gas sector is preparing for a massive infrastructure expansion. The U.S. natural gas industry is poised to see up to 22 Bcf/d in new pipeline projects come online in 2026 as midstream companies race to accommodate surging Permian Basin supply and expanding LNG export demand, with Morningstar DBRS estimating roughly 18 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity is likely to enter service in 2026, the highest annual total since 2008.

Much of the incoming infrastructure is designed to move feed gas to LNG export terminals, with about half of the new capacity consisting of major intrastate pipelines in Texas and Louisiana, where flows are increasingly driven by Gulf Coast LNG demand.

LNG export capacity is on track to increase from about 17 Bcf/d at the end of 2025 to slightly more than 19 Bcf/d in 2026.

According to market data, Henry Hub natural gas traded at $3.25/MMBtu on Tuesday, down 2.4% as domestic supply remains robust despite the global energy crisis. The divergence between surging oil prices and falling U.S. gas prices reflects America's unique position as a major producer unable to easily redirect supplies to global markets while the Hormuz crisis persists.