Europe Struggles to Keep Pace as US and China Race for Critical Minerals Dominance

For the European Union, the fate of a Cold War-era mine near Bratislava is becoming a litmus test for its ambition to break free from China's chokehold over critical minerals.

Sitting in a wooded range of hills in Slovakia known as the Little Carpathians, the so-called Trojarova project is where Soviet engineers first discovered a rich seam of antimony in the 1980s.

Its owners, Canada-based Military Metals Corp, are pitching the facility as a chance for Europe to secure access to an uncommon metal used in military equipment.

According to Bloomberg, "Antimony is a textbook example of a small-volume mineral with outsized strategic impact," with Europe almost entirely import-dependent and China controlling almost 80% of processing. But the project illustrates a broader problem: Brussels officials don't have a mandate to pursue similar policies to the US, and lack money, leaving niche mining projects owned by thinly capitalized companies struggling to take off.

US and EU Sign Critical Minerals Pact

While Europe grapples with execution challenges, the United States is moving aggressively to reshape global supply chains. According to Mining.com, the US and the European Union on Friday deepened their coordination on critical minerals as part of a broader push by Western allies to loosen China's grip on materials crucial to advanced manufacturing, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and European Union Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic signing a memorandum of understanding.

The Action Plan will serve as the primary U.S.-EU mechanism to coordinate trade policies and measures on critical minerals supply chains with a view to concluding a binding plurilateral agreement on trade in critical minerals.

Under the Action Plan, the EU and the US intend to work together to explore a broad range of trade policies and instruments including border-adjusted price floors, standards-based markets, price gap subsidies and offtake agreements.

The timing is significant. At a February ministerial meeting, the United States announced $10 billion for Project Vault to establish a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve to support domestic manufacturers and strengthen supply chain security.

The United States signed eleven new bilateral critical minerals frameworks or MOUs with countries, including Argentina, the Cook Islands, Ecuador, Guinea, Morocco, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, the United Arab Emirates, and Uzbekistan.

China Tightens Its Grip on Rare Earths

The urgency behind Western cooperation becomes clearer when examining China's market control. According to Fortune, China accounts for roughly 70% of global rare earth production, but with close to 90% of the world's rare earth refining and processing capacity, China effectively controls the flow of materials used in products ranging from electric vehicles and wind turbines to advanced semiconductors and precision‑guided munitions.

S&P Global reported that China's rare-earth export restrictions are set to drive supply chain disruptions and higher prices in 2026, especially for rare-earth materials used in high-performance technologies, after China launched a strict licensing regime in April 2025 aimed at limiting exports for sectors that feed defense and other high-tech industries.

According to Andrew David, senior vice president of research and analysis at the Silverado Policy Accelerator think tank, "The supply of certain export-controlled compounds and metals remains a concern as we enter 2026, as recent export data show volumes remain below historical levels."

Industry participants said they expect global premiums outside China to flourish in 2026.

Copper Holds Firm Despite Macro Headwinds

In base metals markets, copper continues to defy gravity. According to Trading Economics, copper futures climbed above $6.2 per pound on May 11, approaching the record highs reached at the end of January, as investors increasingly expect that investments in AI infrastructure, power grid modernization, and clean energy will drive sustained long-term demand for the metal.

S&P Global's 2026 average LME copper price forecast stands at just above $12,100/t.

Analysts emphasized that the copper concentrate market is expected to remain tight for years, with a cumulative deficit of ~3 million tonnes projected by 2036.

Supply disruptions continue to support prices. The ongoing Middle East conflict has disrupted shipments of sulphuric acid, a critical input in copper refining, and China has banned sulphuric acid exports from May through at least December.

Copper production in Chile had already declined by around 6% in the first three months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Barrick Pushes Ahead with Zambia Expansion

One bright spot for copper supply is coming from Africa. According to Barrick Mining Corporation, construction of the $2 billion Super Pit Expansion Project at Barrick's Lumwana mine is well underway, with plans to double copper production to 240,000 tonnes a year, supported by a 50 million tonne per annum processing plant.

Zambia's finance ministry expects copper production to surpass 1m tonnes in 2026, rising to 1.2m tonnes in 2027, helped by large investments from major miners.

According to The Africa Report, USGS estimates show DRC mine production at 3.3m tonnes in 2024 and Zambia at 680,000 tonnes, out of a 23.0m-tonne world total, meaning the two neighbours together account for roughly one-sixth of mined copper.

Ghana Approves First Lithium Mining Lease

In lithium markets, a significant milestone emerged from West Africa. Mining Weekly reported that the Parliament of Ghana has ratified Aim-listed Atlantic Lithium's mining lease for the flagship Ewoyaa project, constituting the Parliament of Ghana's formal approval of the proposed Ewoyaa lithium mine and processing plant, enabling the company to advance discussions relating to project funding.

The company explains that the Ewoyaa mining lease is the first to be granted and ratified for the mining of lithium in Ghana, highlighting the government's support of Atlantic Lithium's production ambitions.

The ratified 15-year lease introduces a sliding royalty scale on spodumene concentrate, ranging from 5% when prices fall below $1,500 a tonne to 12% when they exceed $3,200.

Ewoyaa is expected to produce 3.6 million tonnes of spodumene concentrate over 12 years, making it the third-largest lithium project under development in Africa.

Half of Ewoyaa's output is committed to Elevra Lithium, the merged entity of Piedmont Lithium and Sayona Mining, which previously held offtake agreements with Tesla and LG Chem.

The Processing Problem

The flurry of mining deals and diplomatic agreements underscores a fundamental challenge: extraction is only half the battle. According to Fortune, "The processing process requires specialized technology, which China currently controls," and it could, optimistically, take countries a decade to build their own rare earth industry.

Mining.com reported that in 2026, federal investment will likely expand beyond rare earth elements to include other high-risk minerals like antimony and tungsten, with the country dependent on China, Tajikistan and Russia for the majority of its antimony sourcing.

Frank Hartmann, the official responsible for Asia at the German foreign ministry, told a March 24 event in Berlin that Europe is being too slow and operating on a "too limited scale," saying "What we have to do is long-term strategy, take money and funds into our hands to invest in these critical mineral funds for the next 10 years."

The race for critical minerals is no longer just about geology—it's about industrial policy, processing capacity, and the willingness to deploy capital at scale. As the US and China sprint ahead, Europe's struggle with the Slovakian antimony mine may prove whether the continent can translate ambition into action before it's too late.