The United Arab Emirates officially exited OPEC on May 1, delivering a major blow to the oil cartel as the global energy industry grapples with massive supply disruptions caused by the Iran war . The Washington Post reported that the UAE announced its decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and OPEC+ effective May 1 , ending nearly six decades of membership that began when the Emirate of Abu Dhabi joined in 1967.

Bloomberg reported that UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in an interview that the disruption caused by the war created an opportune time for the move . The country plans to expand production capacity from about 3.4 million barrels per day to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, supported by upstream investment , according to Gulf News. Tehran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have severely constrained the UAE's ability to export oil, threatening the foundation of its economy , CNBC noted.

The timing underscores the severity of the ongoing energy crisis. The International Energy Agency has characterized the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" , according to multiple sources. Brent crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8, 2026 for the first time in four years, rising to $126 per barrel at its peak .

US Oil Giants Hold the Line Against Trump

ExxonMobil and Chevron defied calls from the White House to increase oil production, resisting pressure from an administration struggling to end the biggest energy crisis in decades , the Financial Times reported. Exxon's chief financial officer Neil Hansen told the FT there had been "no change" to the company's strategy in the Permian Basin, while Chevron's finance chief Eimear Bonner said "the crisis has not prompted any change to any of our plans" .

Oil prices on Thursday rose to $126 a barrel, the highest level since the start of the war, while US petrol prices have soared to more than $4 a gallon, undermining President Donald Trump's campaign pledge to bring them below $2 , according to the Irish Times. According to market data, regular unleaded gas is up almost 50% since the start of the Iran war, to $4.42 a gallon late Friday morning , MarketWatch reported.

Hansen told the Financial Times "there's really no need for us to shift up because we're already up, we're already in high gear" . The oil group has the highest exposure to the crisis in the Middle East, with operations in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar accounting for 20 per cent of its oil production last year, and Exxon in April warned that the conflict would cause a loss of 6 per cent of its global production in the first quarter .

Venezuela Emerges as Unexpected Bright Spot

In a striking reversal of fortune, Venezuela's oil exports rose to 1.23 million barrels per day in April, the highest level since 2018, as shipments to the United States, India, and Europe accelerated , OilPrice.com reported. The April average is the highest monthly volume since late 2018, before U.S. sanctions were imposed on Venezuela's energy industry , according to Marine Link.

The main destination of Venezuela's oil last month was the U.S. with some 445,000 bpd directly exported, above the 363,000 bpd of March, while exports to India rose to 374,000 bpd from 342,000 bpd the previous month, and shipments to Europe increased to some 165,000 bpd from 144,000 bpd . New agreements signed this week with U.S. firms Hunt Overseas and Crossover Energy target the Orinoco Belt, Venezuela's core heavy crude region, while European majors including Eni, Repsol, and BP are also expanding or exploring positions .

The turnaround follows the January capture of Nicolas Maduro and installation of an interim government, which prompted Washington to ease sanctions on the country's oil sector.

The Natural Gas Paradox: US Glut Meets Global Shortage

While global natural gas markets face severe shortages, the United States confronts an unusual problem: too much supply with nowhere to send it. Since the war began on February 28, gas futures at the US Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana have dropped by as much as 12% to a 17-month low of $2.52 per million British thermal units, while prices around the world have soared by as much as 84% in Europe and 108% in Asia, to around $21 to $22 per MMBtu , Reuters reported.

US pipelines are full and LNG export plants are at capacity, so that cheap US gas cannot reach overseas buyers, creating a bifurcation much more stark than in the oil markets, and those plants were already operating near maximum capacity before the war, so no matter how high global gas prices go, the US cannot turn much more gas into LNG for export .

Spot gas at the Waha Hub in West Texas has traded below zero almost every day this year because gas pipelines out of the Permian are full, meaning there is no spare capacity to transport the fuel, and some producers have to pay others to take it away, as if it were a waste product , according to Gas Processing & LNG.

The EIA expects U.S. LNG export terminals will run at slightly higher utilization rates in 2026 despite already running at relatively high rates in 2025 because recent disruptions to LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing demand for LNG cargoes from outside the strait . In 2026, Corpus Christi Stage 3 will start up trains 5–7 and Golden Pass LNG will start up its first two trains, while Port Arthur LNG Phase 1, Rio Grande LNG Trains 1 & 2, and the final train of Golden Pass LNG are expected to begin exports next year .

Market Implications

According to market data provided by Polygon.io and the EIA, WTI Crude traded at $71.50 per barrel on Friday, up 0.6%, while Brent Crude stood at $75.20 per barrel, up 0.5%. Henry Hub Natural Gas, meanwhile, fell 2.4% to $3.25 per MMBtu, reflecting the domestic oversupply situation even as global prices remain elevated.

With Brent crude at $111–113 per barrel and WTI above $100 per barrel, alongside a global supply disruption of over 10 million bpd, the UAE's exit may drive short-term volatility but also enhances future supply responsiveness , according to industry analysts quoted by Gulf News. The combination of OPEC's weakening grip, US producers' resistance to political pressure, and Venezuela's return to markets suggests the global oil landscape is undergoing a fundamental restructuring that will reshape energy geopolitics for years to come.