Canada Rethinks Pipeline Sale as Oil Surges

Canada may reconsider privatizing the Trans Mountain oil pipeline as the market around the asset has changed with oil flows to Asia strengthening , according to Elizabeth Wademan, head of the government entity that owns the pipeline . Ottawa bought the pipeline for $4.5 billion in 2018, but the projected cost of construction ballooned to more than $34 billion by the time it started up in May of 2024 .

Recent geopolitical turmoil has underscored the importance of the pipeline, which delivers oilsands crude from Edmonton to a marine terminal in the Vancouver area, from which cargoes can be sent to Asia , Wademan said at a Canadian Club event this week. The expanded line now moves 890,000 barrels daily after launching in May 2024 . The federal government had previously stated it would eventually sell the pipeline to the private sector, Indigenous groups, or a combination of the two.

Can Canada Build Its Way Out of Pipeline Constraints?

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday that Ottawa and Alberta will meet Friday to advance plans for a major new pipeline capable of moving at least 1 million barrels per day of Alberta crude to new markets , according to OilPrice.com. Canada is already producing roughly 5.5 million bpd and is expected to reach 6.1 million bpd by 2030, but pipeline constraints have haunted the industry for years, trapping barrels inland and hammering Canadian crude prices whenever takeaway capacity tightens .

Carney also confirmed an earlier Reuters report which said he would unveil details of a new deal with Alberta on industrial carbon pricing . The move signals a potential shift in federal-provincial relations after years of tension over energy infrastructure development. The Trans Mountain expansion was the key driver of Alberta's record oil production while enabling more oil exports from Alberta to Asia , with the value of Alberta's oil exports to Asia going from zero before the expanded pipeline began operations to over US$804 million as of October 2025 , according to ATB Economics data.

What Happens When a Nation Runs Completely Dry?

Cuba's Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy said during a late Wednesday news conference that the country has "absolutely no fuel, oil, and absolutely no diesel" , according to Al Jazeera. Cuba has been hit by worsening power outages after the island's communist government said fuel reserves had run out, as rare protests erupted in neighbourhoods around the capital, Havana .

Blackouts have increased dramatically this week, with many districts of Havana without light for 20 to 22 hours a day , Reuters reported. Protests broke out in the city on Wednesday evening, with hundreds crowding the streets, blocking roads with garbage and shouting "turn on the lights" , according to Reuters reporters on the ground. The island's energy crisis worsened in January after the United States tightened restrictions on fuel shipments to Cuba, and since then, only one Russian tanker has reportedly reached the island .

While the island of 10 million people is using some domestic fuel production and solar energy to keep some lights on, the entire grid is now so fragile that Cuba's electrical union said it could only cover about a third of national power demand , Bloomberg reported.

How Deep Does India's Oil Shock Go?

India's economic pains are intensifying every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with the world's third-largest crude oil importer scrambling to contain the oil shock that is spreading to consumer prices, foreign exchange reserves, and economic growth , according to OilPrice.com. India has lost over 40% of its crude oil flows since the Hormuz Strait closed, leaving oil marketing companies bleeding up to ₹1,000 crore per day as the government keeps pump prices artificially low to shield consumers .

The rupee hit a new all-time low this week and foreign investors have pulled more than $20 billion from Indian equities in the first four months of 2026, already surpassing last year's full-year record outflows . India's GDP growth is forecast to slow to 6.7% in fiscal 2026/2027 from 7.7% last year, with analysts warning fuel price hikes are likely in Q2 if the Middle East conflict drags on .

The Indian crude oil basket nearly doubled in a single month, from US$69 per barrel in February to US$126 in March, peaking at US$157 , according to the Observer Research Foundation. The International Energy Agency has characterized the situation as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" .

BP Returns to Fossil Fuels in Central Asia

BP has bought 40% in the production sharing agreement regulating oil and gas exploration and production rights for six blocks in Uzbekistan, acquiring a total 40% participating interest – 20% from each of the existing partners, Azerbaijan's state energy firm SOCAR and Uzbekistan's national firm Uzbekneftegaz , OilPrice.com reported Wednesday. BP pulled out of exploration in the region in 2021 as it pursued a green push under then-CEO Bernard Looney, who had pledged to cut oil and gas output by 40% by 2030, however, the company is now pivoting back to fossil fuels .

The PSA was originally signed in July 2025 between SOCAR and Uzbekneftegaz to explore and develop Ustyurt's resources; estimated reserves include roughly 100 million tonnes of oil and 35 billion cubic meters of gas, with potential total investment around US$2 billion , according to Global Banking and Finance.

What Changed This Week

Canada signaled a dramatic policy reversal on energy infrastructure, with Ottawa now backing both the retention of Trans Mountain and the development of a new 1-million-barrel-per-day pipeline to Asian markets. Cuba's complete depletion of diesel and fuel oil reserves triggered the largest protests in Havana in decades, while India's oil crisis entered a critical phase with foreign investment fleeing and the rupee hitting record lows. The common thread: geopolitical disruption is forcing energy-dependent nations to make stark choices about supply security versus market ideology.

What to Watch

Friday's meeting between Prime Minister Carney and Alberta officials will reveal details on the proposed new pipeline and the industrial carbon pricing agreement. India's Reserve Bank may intervene with monetary policy if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to Governor Sanjay Malhotra's statements this week. Cuba's negotiations for fuel imports continue against the backdrop of rising global oil prices driven by the Iran war. According to market data, WTI crude traded at $71.50 per barrel as of May 15, up 0.6%, while Brent crude stood at $75.20, up 0.5%, though these figures remain well below the peaks seen in March during the height of the Hormuz crisis.