China controls 91% of global rare earth refining. That single number explains why the G7 spent three days in Évian, France this week hammering out a critical minerals alliance that reads less like a climate pact and more like a defense strategy.
The Group of Seven countries agreed that no single country should supply more than 60% of their imports of rare earths by 2030, with a target to push that figure to 50% as soon as possible , according to Bloomberg. Last year, China held a 59% share of rare earth mining, 91% in refining, and 94% in magnet manufacturing , the IEA estimates. Those magnets power everything from F-35 fighter jets to wind turbines to EV motors. In 2025, China imposed export controls on rare earth products, and several European and American automakers were forced to cut production due to shortages of permanent magnets , according to industry analysis. Goldman Sachs estimated that a 10% disruption in rare earth supply could result in economic output losses of up to $150 billion .
The Évian declaration, finalized June 17, is explicit about what's at stake. The G7 committed to coordinating efforts to establish the necessary processing and industrial capacities for critical minerals used in defense, EVs, clean energy, and advanced technology , OilPrice.com reported. Member governments have already announced 195 critical minerals projects since the start of 2026, totaling €64 billion in investment , according to the joint statement.
Can the West Actually Build What It Doesn't Have?
Japan offers a cautionary tale. The country was hit with a Chinese rare earth export ban in 2010 following a maritime border dispute, sparking a long effort to reduce reliance on China — yet it still sources around 75% of its imports from its neighbor , Bloomberg noted. Fifteen years of effort. Still 75% dependent.
The problem isn't mining — it's everything that comes after. Processing rare earths into usable materials, separating individual elements, and manufacturing finished components is where China's position becomes nearly unassailable, with the IEA finding that China dominates refining across 19 of 20 critical minerals, holding an average market share of approximately 70% . Even based on current globally developing projects, China's share of rare earth refining is expected to fall only from 91% to 77% by 2035 — meaning a decade from now, China will still control more than three-quarters of the world's rare earth refining capacity , according to IEA projections.
The G7 has committed to backing investment across the full supply chain, with lithium and nickel selected as pilot minerals for stockpiling because both are essential to EV battery manufacturing . The joint communique included plans to expand the role of the International Energy Agency, which last year warned that high market concentration could leave global supply chains vulnerable to potential disruptions , according to The National.
Why Small Modular Reactors Suddenly Matter
While the G7 focused on minerals, Washington is betting on a different kind of energy security: nuclear power that doesn't require a decade to build. Energy security is becoming a national defense priority as rising power demand from AI, semiconductors, manufacturing, and military operations collides with grid vulnerabilities and growing competition with China, with Small Modular Reactors being positioned as a key solution offering reliable 24/7 baseload power , OilPrice.com reported.
The United States faces a convergence of unprecedented energy demand and an electric grid that is at capacity and vulnerable to cyberattacks, physical sabotage, transmission bottlenecks, and extreme weather events, requiring dependable, 24/7 baseload power capable of supporting critical infrastructure under all conditions , according to the analysis. The pitch is straightforward: The U.S. needs faster nuclear deployment to stay competitive, with proponents arguing that NRC-approved SMR technology can help strengthen energy independence, secure critical infrastructure, and counter China's rapidly expanding nuclear and industrial footprint .
The economics are shifting, too. In the U.S., wind power has regained its position as the cheapest option for new electricity generation, overtaking gas-fired power for the first time since 2023, as recent surges in gas turbine demand driven heavily by data center expansion have doubled U.S. turbine capex in just two years , BloombergNEF reported in February.
