Vale Base Metals is on track for a sharp earnings rebound, CEO Shaun Usmar said Monday, with cheaper brownfield projects in Canada and Brazil at the center of the plan. The unit aims to triple pre-tax profit to $5 billion this year, up from about $1.3 billion in 2024. The pitch lands as Western governments and copper markets compete for new supply, and it shows how much of that supply may come from expanding existing operations rather than building new ones.
Vale Base Metals: Turnaround Becomes a Growth Story
Usmar spoke at the CIM Capital Projects Symposium in Toronto. "We aren't just a turnaround story; we're also a growth story," Usmar said Monday. The unit consumed around $2 billion in cash in 2024, according to MINING.COM, so the swing he is targeting is substantial. The earnings push reflects sweeping cost reductions, an overhaul of operating accountability after years of missed production targets and about $10 billion in capital project overruns over 18 years, as well as stronger copper prices. Vale's third-quarter results show its average realized copper price rose 56% year over year to $15,314 per tonne, outpacing a 44% increase in the benchmark London Metal Exchange price.
Production is already moving. Vale Base Metals produced 382,300 tonnes of copper and 177,200 tonnes of nickel in 2025, increases of 10% and 11%, respectively, from the previous year. Copper output was the highest since 2018, while nickel production reached its highest level since 2022. The company is targeting annual production of 420,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper and 210,000 to 250,000 tonnes of nickel by 2030, and about 700,000 tonnes of copper annually by 2035, an 83% increase from 2025 levels. Exploration is ramping up too, with a target of 140,000 metres of drilling this year, up from about 30,000 metres in 2024.
The capital discipline is the core of the story. Vale Base Metals has reduced projected capital spending across its development portfolio by more than 30%, while lifting expected rates of return from the low-to-mid teens to more than 20%, Usmar said. A Brazilian brownfield project initially expected to cost more than $500 million was redesigned after Usmar rejected the proposed design shortly after joining in late 2024. It now requires nearly half the original capital investment, he said.
In Canada, Sudbury is central to the strategy. Vale Base Metals operates six mines there and has been mining in the Ontario district for 125 years. By taking a district-wide approach, the company has accelerated some projects previously scheduled for the 2040s into the early 2030s. Usmar said the Canadian processing infrastructure represents tens of billions of dollars in replacement value. "Brownfield development represents one of the best opportunities to increase near-term supply by leveraging existing infrastructure," Usmar said.
Copper Market: Tight Supply Meets Soft Demand Signals
The backdrop favors suppliers. The Yangshan copper premium, which reflects demand for metal imported into China, rose to a record $230 a tonne on Monday. Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses fell more than 24% last week to 33,848 tonnes, the lowest in almost three years, according to John Gross of The Copper Journal.
On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper rose 0.9% to $13,890 a tonne by mid-afternoon in London on Monday. It had lost 2.7% last week in its steepest weekly decline since March. Morgan Stanley metals strategist Amy Gower told Bloomberg that demand indicators are "fairly lackluster", pointing to supply issues as the cause of tightness in China.
Policy is part of the picture as well. A Democratic sweep in last week's US midterm elections has reduced the prospects for the Trump administration's planned tariffs on refined copper, MINING.COM reported. Per Polygon data, the COPX copper miners ETF closed at $75.25 in the November 9 session, up 5.6% on the day.
Barrick Mining: North American Gold IPO Moves Toward Filing
Barrick Mining said it plans to file for an initial public offering of its North American gold business this month. Completion could take place in the fourth quarter or early 2027. The proposed company, called North American Barrick, would hold interests in Nevada Gold Mines' Carlin, Cortez and Turquoise Ridge operations, along with Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic. Barrick CEO Mark Hill will also lead the new company. Completion remains subject to market conditions, approvals and securities registration.
Newmont will pay Barrick about $2 billion (C$2.8 billion) under an August agreement. The deal secured Newmont's consent to the IPO while preserving the joint venture's ownership split of 61.5% for Barrick and 38.5% for Newmont. Jefferies mining analyst Fahad Tariq called the IPO "the next major catalyst" for Barrick shares.
The quarterly numbers give investors plenty to weigh. Barrick's third-quarter net income rose 1% from a year earlier to $1.3 billion, while revenue jumped 22% to $5.1 billion, the company said. Gold all-in sustaining costs climbed 24% to $1,911 per oz., reflecting lower grades, increased diesel prices, gold-price-linked royalties and higher sustaining capital.
