The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked by Iran since February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran , and traffic through the waterway has been reduced to a trickle, with just 154 vessels recorded crossing in the entire month of March , according to data from analytics firm Kpler. Overall, traffic through Hormuz in the last two months has run at about 5% of the pre-war average , CNN reported, creating what the International Energy Agency has characterized as "the largest oil supply disruption in the history" of the global market .

Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods warned Friday that the market has not absorbed the full impact of the unprecedented oil supply disruption triggered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz , according to CNBC. The disruption has been mitigated by the large number of loaded oil tankers that were in transit during the first month of the war, Woods told investors on Exxon's first-quarter earnings call. Strategic petroleum reserves have also been released and commercial inventories drawn down , but one of these supply sources will become exhausted as the conflict goes on, Woods said. Oil prices will then increase as the strait remains closed .

According to market data, WTI crude traded at $71.50 per barrel on Friday, up 0.6%, while Brent crude stood at $75.20 per barrel, up 0.5%.

Libya Emerges as Surprise Beneficiary

Libya's stability has taken on renewed strategic importance as the impact of the United States and Israel's war with Iran reverberates through global energy markets, pushing Brent crude prices to a three-year high as of mid-March , according to the Middle East Institute. The Financial Times reported that Libya's crude output has risen to highest level since 2013 as demand soars to replace lost barrels from the Gulf .

Libya's oil production, stable for now under informal arrangements but structurally fragile, matters more than usual , with arrangements that have been maintaining Libyan oil production at 1.2-1.3 million barrels per day, roughly 1% of global supply . In late March, Egypt formalized what markets were already signaling, announcing it was securing roughly 1 million barrels a month from Libya to offset Hormuz disruptions , Al Jazeera reported.

Roberto Cardarelli, an International Monetary Fund official, cited Algeria and Libya among the "winners" from the Iran conflict at the IMF spring meetings in Washington last week. "They have the windfall from the energy crisis," he said. "They're going to have more demand for their production to satisfy the needs from Europe in particular." The IMF revised growth projections up by 2.5 percentage points for Libya and nearly 1 percentage point for Algeria , according to AGBI.

BP's New CEO Doubles Down on Oil and Gas

As she sat down to pen her first email to BP's 100,000 staff, Meg O'Neill opted against sparing the radical rhetoric. To the American oil and gas thoroughbred, who had just become the first ever female chief executive of a British energy major, there was only one course available to her new employer should it wish to avoid extending its more-than-decade-long spell of financial mediocrity. "Right now, we're operating in an environment of significant complexity: geopolitical tension; conflict; rapid technological change; and shifting global energy demand," she told BP employees , OilPrice.com reported.

BP announced that the bp Board has appointed Meg O'Neill as bp's next chief executive officer, effective 1 April 2026 , according to the company's official announcement. The Board believes this transition creates an opportunity to accelerate our strategic vision to become a simpler, leaner, and more profitable company. Progress has been made in recent years, but increased rigor and diligence are required to make the necessary transformative changes to maximise value for our shareholders , BP Chairman Albert Manifold said.

During the first three months of 2026, profit at the group more than doubled, far exceeding both its own estimates and the expectations of analysts. Buoyed by the historic turmoil in oil and gas markets caused by the regional conflict in the Middle East, its trading desk, which thrives in volatile markets, posted profit before tax of $3.2bn; its best quarter since Russia's Ukraine invasion , OilPrice.com reported.

BP remains resolute in its pivot back toward core oil and gas operations, a shift under way since 2023; O'Neill is now tasked with accelerating and optimizing that strategy , according to Energy Intelligence.

China Reverses Export Ban as Asia Faces Fuel Crisis

Beijing is reversing its curbs on refined fuel exports after halting shipments in the opening days of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This move suggests that Chinese domestic inventories are now at comfortable levels, allowing state refiners to reopen the export spigot, even as much of Asia remains gripped by a fuel shock caused by disrupted Gulf energy flows through the Hormuz chokepoint , OilPrice.com reported.

Bloomberg reported that state-owned refiners had received government approval to export 500,000 tons of fuel next month. People familiar with the upcoming shipments said the one-off quota would allow gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to be sent to neighboring Asian countries, providing relief amid a worsening fuel crunch. They said these shipments will be loaded onto tankers and are likely destined for Vietnam, Laos, and other nearby nations .

The fuel shortage has hit the region hard. In 2024, around 84 per cent of the crude oil and 83 per cent of LNG passing through the Strait went to Asia; nearly 70 per cent of the oil went to China, India, Japan, and South Korea , according to data compiled by Wikipedia. In Southeast Asia, over 40% of gas stations in Laos have closed, and disruptions in Cambodia and Thailand have prompted rationing and price controls, while many flights in Vietnam have been canceled due to aviation fuel shortages following China's export ban , Asia Times reported.

Russia Cashes In on Price Surge

Russia's revenue from crude and petroleum shipments rose to $19 billion last month, a sharp reversal from February, when revenues hit a post-invasion low of $9.75 billion , The Moscow Times reported, citing the International Energy Agency's monthly oil market report.

In March 2026, Russia's monthly fossil fuel export revenues increased by 52% month-on-month to EUR 713 mn per day. This corresponded to a less significant 16% month-on-month increase in export volumes in March. Russia's crude oil export revenues rose 94% month-on-month to EUR 431 mn per day , according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Russia is earning more from its oil exports than at any time since the early weeks of the Ukraine war, as soaring prices and an uptick in flows raise the value of shipments to the most since June 2022. War in the Middle East has driven global oil prices to multiyear highs and bolstered demand for Moscow's barrels after Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping , Bloomberg reported.

The windfall comes despite ongoing Western sanctions. In March 2026, China remained the largest global buyer of Russian fossil fuels, accounting for 43% (EUR 8.5 bn) of Russia's export revenues from the top five importers. Crude oil made up 78% (EUR 6.6 bn) of China's purchases , according to energy analysts.

Natural gas prices have also been affected by the crisis, with Henry Hub trading at $3.25/MMBtu according to market data, down 2.4% as the U.S. finds itself with more supply than it can use while global markets remain disrupted.