OPEC+ agreed Sunday to add 188,000 barrels per day to production quotas for June, the third consecutive monthly increase since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began , according to Al Jazeera. But the move is more about signaling intent than delivering actual barrels to market. The Iran war, which began on February 28, and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz have throttled exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait , Al Jazeera reported.

The output increase excludes the United Arab Emirates, which officially departed OPEC on May 1, with the seven remaining countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman , according to CNBC. The output hike will remain largely symbolic until shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and even then, it will take several weeks, if not months, for flows to normalize , CNBC noted, citing oil executives and traders.

According to market data, WTI crude traded at $71.50 per barrel on Friday, up 0.6%, while Brent crude stood at $75.20, up 0.5%. Those figures represent a sharp retreat from the crisis peaks— oil prices had surged to a four-year high above $125 per barrel , according to The Express Tribune.

The Hormuz Deadlock Persists

Two months into the conflict, the world's most critical oil chokepoint remains severely restricted. Before the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in late February, about 3,000 vessels typically passed through the Strait of Hormuz each month, but traffic has been reduced to a trickle, with just 154 vessels recorded crossing in the entire month of March , CNN reported, citing Lloyd's List Intelligence and Kpler data.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked by Iran since February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran , according to Wikipedia's documentation of the crisis. Since April 13, the US has blockaded Iranian ports, leading to a "dual blockade" of the strait , the source noted.

OilPrice.com reported that President Trump faces a key legal deadline under the 1973 War Powers Resolution as the deadlock continues. The US Department of Defense estimated that Iran had lost $4.8 billion in oil revenue from April 13 to May 1 due to the blockade, with a total of 31 tankers laden with 53 million barrels of Iranian oil being "stuck in the Gulf" , according to Wikipedia.

China Reopens the Export Spigot

After halting refined fuel exports in early March to protect domestic supplies, Beijing is now reversing course. Beijing is reversing its curbs on refined fuel exports after halting shipments in the opening days of the U.S.-Iran conflict, suggesting that Chinese domestic inventories are now at comfortable levels , OilPrice.com reported.

Bloomberg reported that state-owned refiners had received government approval to export 500,000 tons of fuel next month, with the one-off quota allowing gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to be sent to neighboring Asian countries , according to OilPrice.com. These shipments will be loaded onto tankers and are likely destined for Vietnam, Laos, and other nearby nations , sources told the publication.

The reversal comes as much of Asia remains gripped by fuel shortages. China's decision to halt exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel until at least the end of March deepened fuel shortages across Asia, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed , Modern Diplomacy reported in March.

Russia's Windfall

While sanctions were designed to squeeze Moscow's war chest, the Hormuz crisis has delivered an unexpected revenue surge. Russia's revenue from crude and petroleum shipments rose to $19 billion in March, a sharp reversal from February, when revenues hit a post-invasion low of $9.75 billion , according to the International Energy Agency, as reported by The Moscow Times.

Russia's earnings from oil exports increased sharply in March 2026, reaching approximately $19 billion, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as a result of a spike in crude oil prices following the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and a temporary sanctions waiver issued by the United States , Multibagg AI reported.

Russia's monthly fossil fuel export revenues increased by 52% month-on-month to EUR 713 million per day in March 2026, with crude oil export revenues rising 94% month-on-month to EUR 431 million per day , according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. OilPrice.com noted that countries such as India and China have used Western sanctions as an opportunity to buy discounted Russian crude and gas.

Egypt Raises Gas Prices Amid Volatility

Egypt's Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced an increase in the prices of several petroleum products and natural gas for vehicles, citing exceptional conditions in global energy markets , according to Ahram Online. Reuters reported that Egypt raised natural gas prices for industries amid volatile energy prices.

The geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their direct impact on global energy markets have led to a significant increase in the costs of imports and domestic production, with disruptions in supply chains, elevated risk levels, and rising maritime shipping and insurance costs resulting in a major surge in global prices , Egypt Oil & Gas reported, citing the Ministry of Petroleum.

According to market data, Henry Hub natural gas prices fell 2.4% to $3.25 per MMBtu on Friday, reflecting easing concerns in North American markets even as global LNG flows remain disrupted. The divergence underscores how the Hormuz crisis has created a bifurcated energy market, with Asia bearing the brunt of supply disruptions while North American gas markets remain relatively insulated by domestic production.