Wednesday, June 17, 2026Vol. III · No. 168Subscribe
The Mining, Energy & Technology Wire
Oil & Gas · Analysis

Syria's Gas Gambit Meets AI's Power Grab

ConocoPhillips is signing Syria's first major U.S. energy deal in over a decade. Meanwhile, American utilities are fast-tracking gas plants for AI data centers with minimal oversight—and the two stories share a common thread.

Syria's Gas Gambit Meets AI's Power Grab
PhotographConocoPhillips is signing Syria's first major U.S. energy deal in over a decade. Meanwhile, American utilities are fast-tracking gas plants for AI data centers with minimal oversight—and the two stories share a common thread.

Syria expects gas output to jump by 4 million to 5 million cubic meters per day within a year once ConocoPhillips finalizes a deal this week with Damascus— the first U.S. oil and gas major to sign a contract with the country's new government , the Financial Times reported Monday. Before the civil war broke out in 2011, Syria was producing 30 million cubic meters of gas daily . The agreement, alongside partner Novaterra Energy, aims to revive fields shattered by years of conflict and sanctions.

But Syria's gas revival is about more than reconstruction. It sits at the heart of a broader geopolitical pivot: the Four Seas Initiative, a proposed energy corridor designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The project would incorporate 6,300 kilometers of Syria's recoverable prewar pipeline network alongside existing Turkish infrastructure to route Gulf, Iraqi, and Caspian hydrocarbons overland to European markets , according to the Washington-based New Lines Institute. "When there are risks around the Strait of Hormuz, energy supplies become uncertain," Syrian Energy Minister Iyad Kanatri said at a recent forum. The timing is deliberate: Hormuz has been effectively closed for three months during the U.S.-Iran conflict, and even with a tentative peace deal, two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains were damaged in Iranian strikes and will take years to repair , Reuters reported.

Can Syria Become the Next Energy Hub?

The Four Seas concept is ambitious—perhaps fantastically so. One corridor alone, the Arab Gas Pipeline modernization, would require $1.2 billion to rehabilitate the Egypt-Jordan-Syria-Turkey line . Discussions focus on increasing the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline's capacity from approximately 1 million barrels per day to between 2 million and 2.5 million barrels per day , according to Syrian officials. Yet Syria's governance remains fragile, its infrastructure battered, and its ability to guarantee territorial security uncertain.

Still, the initiative has attracted serious attention. Based on agreements signed with the Syrian government in recent months, these resources will be developed by companies including not just ConocoPhillips but Chevron, TotalEnergies, Eni, and QatarEnergy , OilPrice.com reported. The White House should formally designate the Four Seas Initiative as a U.S. strategic infrastructure priority, explicitly linking it to the energy security commitments made under the Three Seas framework , the New Lines Institute recommended in a recent policy brief.

The subtext is clear: diversify away from Hormuz, reduce European dependence on Russian gas, and reintegrate Syria into global energy flows. Whether it works depends less on engineering than on whether Damascus can sustain political stability long enough to attract the capital required.

Why Are U.S. Utilities Racing to Build Gas Plants for AI?

Half a world away, a different kind of energy scramble is unfolding. Dozens of large, off-grid power projects are being approved rapidly and often under a cover of secrecy across the United States to supply the tech industry's booming demand for powering data centers , Reuters reported Monday. Ohio made AI power-project approvals faster with a law last year allowing certain plants to win approval in as little as 45 days without public hearings .

The driver is simple: the grid cannot keep up. In the U.S., data center power use jumped from 23 gigawatts in 2023 to 42 gigawatts in 2026—nearly double in just three years . Analysis presented to PJM Interconnection governors warns of a 49 GW U.S. generation shortfall by 2028—a gap roughly equivalent to 49 large natural gas power plants . Grid interconnection queues now stretch to seven years or more, while a behind-the-meter gas plant can be deployed in as little as 18 months .

So tech companies are building their own. Dominion Energy South Carolina and Santee Cooper's proposal to build a $5 billion, 2,180-MW gas-fired power plant was approved by state regulators on June 12, Utility Dive reported. Williams has announced a $5.1 billion portfolio for "power innovation," which includes building modular, gas-fired power plants at data center sites, including a $1.6 billion investment in Project Socrates, set for completion in the second half of 2026 . Exxon Mobil has a pipeline of over 2.7 GW in data center power projects .

The model is spreading. Over the past year, Meta's 800-acre Bowling Green data center has been joined by construction of a large natural gas power plant meant to serve the project , Reuters found. Residents like Breanne Kidd, who runs a home daycare across the street, weren't told about the plant until construction began.

What About the Weather?

Natural gas traders are watching two wildcards: the Hormuz reopening and a potential "super El Niño." New forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather forecasts showed odds increasing for a so-called "super El Niño" emerging this year, which could bring with it extremely hot temperatures across parts of the United States that could persist in 2027 , Natural Gas Intel reported.

The implications cut both ways. Summer forecasts are pointing to higher-than-normal temperatures across Asia, while an El Niño weather pattern could make things even hotter, boosting air-conditioning use and straining power grids when energy prices are already elevated , Bloomberg noted. The key risk is the heat triggers stronger demand in China, the world's No. 1 liquefied natural gas buyer .

Yet El Niño also suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, which in recent years has become a bearish factor for U.S. gas. Storms can knock out power demand through outages and business interruption, while also forcing LNG facilities to curtail operations or disrupting shipping flows—with U.S. production now overwhelmingly onshore, supply is far less vulnerable than in the past . A quieter hurricane season means fewer export disruptions and more stable LNG flows, which could support prices if Asian demand surges.

Meanwhile, QatarEnergy has told buyers it expects to raise output to about 50% of capacity a month after safe passage through Hormuz is restored, and to roughly 80% within two months , Bloomberg reported Tuesday. But Iranian missile strikes in March 2026 caused damage assessed as requiring years of restoration work before full nameplate capacity can be recovered—meaning that even after the phased restart reaches 80% in month two, Qatar's contribution to global LNG supply will remain structurally below its pre-conflict potential for an extended period .

What Changed This Week

Syria moved from reconstruction rhetoric to commercial reality with ConocoPhillips poised to sign the first major U.S. energy deal since the civil war began. The Four Seas Initiative, once a think-tank concept, is now being actively promoted by Damascus and Ankara as a Hormuz alternative. In the U.S., the collision between AI's insatiable power demand and grid constraints has accelerated a shift toward captive gas generation, with billions in projects approved in recent weeks—often with minimal public input. And natural gas markets are pricing in both a Qatari LNG restart and the possibility of extreme weather later this year.

What to Watch

ConocoPhillips is expected to formally sign the Syria gas deal by the end of this week. The U.S. special envoy for Syria, in coordination with the European commissioner for energy, should convene a founding Four Seas Ministerial Forum in Istanbul before the end of 2026 , the New Lines Institute recommended—watch for any movement on that diplomatic front. On the power side, the South Carolina Public Service Commission's written order on the Dominion-Santee Cooper project will clarify whether coal retirements are tied to the new gas plant. And NOAA's next El Niño update, due in early July, will refine the odds of a super event and its timing—critical for gas traders positioning for summer and winter 2026-27.

Original reporting and analysis by the Stake & Paper editorial team. See linked sources within the article.

Share this story

More from Stake & Paper

Was this article helpful?

ClaimWatch

Mining claims intelligence — from query to report, in minutes.

Every unpatented mining claim across all twelve BLM states. Leadfile audits, due diligence, site selection, regional prospecting, entity investigations, and AOI monitoring — delivered as complete report packages.

4.4M+
Claims Tracked
12
BLM States
7
Report Types
Request a Sample Report
Stake & Paper AM

One morning brief. The whole energy sector.

Original analysis, the day's most important wire stories, and market data — delivered before your first cup of coffee. Free.