Twenty-nine tankers have escaped the Strait of Hormuz in the past week, slipping through with their transponders dark. Twenty-nine of 109 large non-Iranian vessels trapped since February 28 have exited with US informational support, some with transponders off, suggesting conventional tracking understates actual transits , The National reported. It's a tentative reopening of the world's most critical oil chokepoint—but not the one anyone expected three months ago.
The oil market will not normalize until 2027 if the Hormuz disruption persists past mid-June, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned, noting the market loses 100 million barrels of supply every week Hormuz is closed—880 million barrels lost so far . That's enough oil to run Japan for six months. While diplomats talk and naval helicopters circle, the energy industry has stopped waiting. A new oil map is emerging—one where Corpus Christi rivals Ras Tanura, where Guyana pumps nearly a million barrels a day, and where Singapore scrambles to keep Asia's refineries fed.
Can Non-OPEC Producers Fill the Gap?
The Port of Corpus Christi has never seen traffic like this. March was the busiest month in the port's history, with ship traffic rising to more than 240 vessels compared to the normal 200 per month , CNBC reported. U.S. oil exports jumped to 5.2 million barrels per day in April, a more than 30% increase over the 3.9 million bpd exported in February before the war , according to Kpler data. The Texas port, previously the world's third-largest oil export terminal behind Ras Tanura and Basra, now sits atop the rankings by default—the two Gulf ports are largely cut off.
Some 50 to 60 very large crude carriers are heading to U.S. ports on any given day right now, double last year's volume, with VLCCs typically carrying up to 2 million barrels . Many tankers are coming from Asian countries that imported oil from the Middle East before the war, now turning to the U.S. Gulf Coast because the trade route through the strait is effectively closed, with Asian markets buying whatever they can get , Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, told CNBC.
But this is crisis management, not a permanent realignment. Light sweet crude oil that the U.S. produces is a poor substitute for sour Middle East barrels because of the way many refineries are configured to optimize heavy feedstocks , Smith noted. Domestic oil inventories are depleting stockpiles, and experts warn there's a question of how long the country can continue replacing oil stuck in the Strait, with selling so much potentially pushing U.S. gas prices even higher , UPI reported.
Guyana, meanwhile, has become the surprise winner. By late February 2026, Guyana was lifting 926,550 barrels per day, securing its place as South America's second largest oil producer behind Brazil and ahead of Venezuela, with four more projects expected to push output to 1.7 million bpd by 2030 , according to OilPrice.com. ExxonMobil reported Guyana set a new quarterly production record of more than 900 thousand gross barrels of oil per day in the first quarter . Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sharpened the strategic importance of Guyana's growing exports—about a third of which already flow to the U.S.
Where Does Asia Turn When the Gulf Goes Dark?
Singapore is feeling the strain. Handling about a fifth of global energy trade, Singapore faces increased pressure as the Middle East war disrupts crude flows, with refineries and trading houses using storage buffers and alternate sources, but analysts warn sustained Gulf disruptions could deplete supply and trigger more force majeure notices , according to Financial Times reporting cited by Traders Union.
Singapore's role rests on its position near the Strait of Malacca and a system of ports, refineries and storage assets, handling about a fifth of global energy trade and ranking as the world's third-largest trading market after New York and London, with Jurong Island housing more than 100 petroleum and chemical companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron . Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong says Singapore must diversify fuel sources, strengthen buffers and plan ahead for further disruption to preserve its role as a reliable energy hub for Asia .
The city-state is improvising. Brazilian fuel oil imports to Southeast Asia jumped 80% in March, with most headed to Singapore and Malaysia, reaching a record of about 1 million metric tonnes according to Kpler data , as reported by energy news sources. Traders have partly offset lost Middle Eastern cargoes with Russian oil , though that brings its own complications.
Azerbaijan is offering another alternative. BP announced the start of free gas production operations at the ACG field in Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea sector on behalf of partners including SOCAR, MOL Group, INPEX, ExxonMobil, TPAO and ONGC Videsh, marking the beginning of first commercial gas production operations from ACG, one of the world's largest oil fields , AzerNEWS reported. The ACG field is estimated to contain around 4 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas reserves, with potential to increase to nearly 6 trillion cubic feet . Energy market observers view this as significantly deepening Western energy integration in the Caspian Sea, strengthening Azerbaijan's role as a vital alternative gas supplier to Europe .
