The New Minerals Map: Three Fronts

Some rare earth elements remain "nearly unobtainable" from China , the U.S.-China Business Council reported Wednesday. Beijing's export controls and licensing delays have driven three-quarters of impacted American companies to search for new supplies , according to the lobby group's latest survey. The timing is not coincidental. US and Central Asian officials met June 10-11 in Astana, Kazakhstan to explore deals on mining and processing critical minerals , while across the Atlantic, the Democratic Republic of Congo imposed strict export quotas of 96,600 tonnes for 2026 and 2027 on cobalt—the battery metal that powers everything from electric vehicles to fighter jets. Three separate supply chain battles, unfolding simultaneously, are redrawing the global minerals map.

The stakes are concrete. Samarium cobalt magnets—critical for high-temperature aerospace and defense applications—and finished rare earth magnets remain difficult to secure due to China's control over both mining and processing , the Business Council noted. Meanwhile, cobalt prices have surged more than 240 percent since early 2025 , creating what one analyst called a "perfect storm of aggressive geopolitical intervention, a radical shift in African export policies and a resilient demand profile."

Can Central Asia Fill the Gap?

Kazakhstan holds more than 9,500 deposits, including over 100 containing rare and rare-earth metals , the country's Industry Minister told the C5+1 dialogue. An American consortium known as Kaz Resources Inc. will develop major tungsten deposits in Kazakhstan, retaining 70 percent of the shares while the Kazakh government holds 30 percent —a structure designed to attract Western capital that has historically balked at resource nationalism.

The shift is deliberate. "Kazakhstan is transitioning from the category of a neutral transit territory in Central Asia to the status of an active participant in reliable and resilient critical minerals supply chains," the Kazakh government said, noting that "a structural crisis of the old export model, institutional realignment to international standards, and strong Western geopolitical demand for non-Chinese sources of critical minerals have aligned within the same time window."

The US delegation included the heads of the Ex-Im Bank and the DFC, along with mining executives including Ivanhoe Mines founder Robert Friedland and former Anglo American CEO Mark Cutifani . That roster signals intent. US Special Envoy Sergio Gor told the gathering that Central Asia "has not gotten the attention it deserves from the United States," adding: "We care about this region, we want to be involved with this region, we want to identify win-win situations."

But attention does not equal tonnage. The region has supplies of at least 32 of the now 60 critical minerals identified by the U.S. government , yet China controls an estimated 40 to 90 percent of the world's processing capacity for lithium, cobalt, and copper despite producing only about 10 percent of those minerals itself. Mining the ore is the easy part. Turning it into battery-grade material is where China dominates—and where deals signed in Astana will ultimately be tested.

Why Is Cobalt Suddenly Expensive Again?

The DRC accounts for 70% of global cobalt supply, and the country is leading a significant shift in mining strategy as producers cut back on cobalt after prices fell sharply under heavy oversupply and move capital into copper instead . The quota system is the mechanism. Unused Q1 2026 allocations must be shipped by June 30 or be forfeited to the national strategic reserve , creating a use-it-or-lose-it dynamic that has left some producers scrambling.

A market decoupling has taken place: despite copper production remaining high, cobalt continues to be stockpiled within the DRC rather than being released onto the market, creating a paradoxical situation in which more cobalt is being mined than ever before, and yet the market is experiencing its most severe shortage in decades .

The squeeze is real. From December 2025 through the end of February, only 7,800 tonnes of cobalt have been cleared for exports, according to a source familiar with the DRC's export border documentation—a "massive discrepancy" compared to allocated quotas . A global cobalt shortage is expected to persist through the end of this decade as export restrictions from the DRC impact the supply chain, according to trading house Darton Commodities, with the nation introducing the measures to curb a glut and boost prices .

Battery makers are caught in the middle. In 2026, lithium iron phosphate's limitations—namely, its low energy density and poor performance in cold climates—have reaffirmed the need for cobalt-based chemistries for long-range electric vehicles, with the nickel-cobalt-manganese battery emerging as the most desirable for the premium EV market in Europe and North America .

What Did Congress Just Pass?

The Critical Mineral Dominance Act passed in the House on February 4, 2026 and goes to the Senate next for consideration . The bipartisan DOMINANCE Act directs American diplomacy and development finance toward securing critical mineral supply chains outside China's control, signaling a shift from a domestic mining strategy to a broader geopolitical supply-chain strategy, treating critical minerals as instruments of statecraft .

The bill is explicit about the problem. China controls roughly 90% of global rare earth processing capacity, making refining and metallurgy the true bottleneck—not just mining . Interior must identify priority mining projects on federal lands that can be immediately approved and take all necessary steps to expedite those projects, as well as identify active, inactive, or proposed mining projects that have the potential to increase production of hardrock minerals or their byproducts .

Yet legislation alone cannot solve processing gaps. The bill does not directly resolve permitting delays, processing bottlenecks, or workforce gaps in the rare earth sector , experts noted. And while China suspended some export controls on critical minerals and rare earth materials to the United States for a year following talks between Presidents Trump and Xi, including limits on certain rare earth elements, lithium battery materials, and processing technologies first imposed on October 9 , the underlying architecture remains intact.

Chile's Sierra Gorda mine and BHP's Spence operation have agreed to explore collaboration opportunities aimed at lowering costs and improving efficiency, signing a memorandum of understanding to evaluate commercial and technical cooperation in Chile's Sierra Gorda district, where both mines face declining ore grades, operational challenges and lower output . Even in copper—where supply is supposed to be abundant—producers are consolidating to survive cost pressures.

What Changed This Week

The critical minerals landscape shifted on three fronts. Central Asia formalized its pitch to become a non-Chinese supply source, with Kazakhstan offering majority ownership stakes to Western investors—a structure unthinkable five years ago. The DRC's June 30 deadline for unused Q1 cobalt quotas forced a reckoning for producers who banked on extensions that never came. And American companies publicly acknowledged that despite a trade truce with Beijing, access to key rare earths remains "nearly unobtainable," driving the largest supply chain diversification effort in a generation.

What to Watch

The C5+1 dialogue continues June 11-12 in Astana with the full mining congress. Watch whether any tungsten or rare earth deals move from memoranda to funded projects. The DRC's June 30 forfeiture deadline will reveal how much cobalt actually clears customs versus how much gets reallocated to the strategic reserve. In Washington, the DOMINANCE Act faces Senate consideration—and the real test of whether Congress can match legislative ambition with permitting reform. And across the battery supply chain, Fastmarkets projects a structural cobalt shortfall of about 10,700 metric tons against demand near 292,300 metric tons in 2026, driven by DRC quota limits and ongoing drawdowns of stocks . If that deficit holds, the era of cheap cobalt is over—and the scramble for alternatives has only just begun.