China Wants Copper Before It Clears Anglo

On market share alone, Anglo American and Teck Resources should be a formality in Beijing. A combined company would control around 5% of global copper supply, below competition thresholds that start at 10% and run to 15%. Every other regulator where the two operate has signed off on the $54 billion merger.

China has not, and it is asking for something no antitrust textbook covers: copper.

Reuters reported on October 2, 2026, via Mining.com, that China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has asked Anglo to commit to a steady flow of copper concentrate to the country as a condition of approval. Three people aware of the discussions described the request, and they asked not to be named. The regulator wants assurances that include volumes sold through traders, not just direct contracts. It has also canvassed Chinese smelters and is now negotiating remedies built on their complaints, one of the people said.

The remedies sought do not include asset sales at this stage. That makes this an industrial-policy demand more than a competition one.

A veto and a shortage

Anglo's spokesperson stuck to the script: "We are making good progress towards completion and are working constructively with the Chinese regulator, SAMR, through its structured review process." Teck declined to comment on regulatory processes, and SAMR did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The companies have reason to stay polite. Reuters noted that China, as a major buyer of both companies' copper, holds effective veto power, and that it has a history of using antitrust review of megadeals to extract strict conditions protecting its own industrial supply. Both companies expect to close by March 2027, within 18 months of the 2025 announcement. In July, Anglo said China was the last outstanding antitrust approval, according to The Deep Dive's summary of Reuters.

The timing of the demand makes sense once you look at the smelters. China's smelters refine up to 60% of the world's copper cathodes, and Reuters says they face their worst feedstock shortage in decades. Mysteel reports that China imports around 80% of the concentrate it consumes. Cumulative imports of copper ore and concentrate through May 2026 came to 12.28 million tonnes, down 1.2% from a year earlier, per China's customs data as cited by Mysteel.

The price signals are blunt. Smelters earn treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), the fees miners pay to turn concentrate into metal. Those fees have been negative for nearly two years, Finimize explained. The 2026 benchmark was set at $0/dmt for the first time, according to Mysteel. Argus put spot TC/RCs at minus $226.2 per metric ton on September 18th. The China Smelters Purchase Team declined to set fourth-quarter guidance, the seventh straight quarter without it, and urged members to cut output.

Scrambling for sulfur

Smelters are improvising. Pyrite imports, sulfur-bearing material used as an alternative input, reached about 677,100 tonnes in the first five months of 2026, up 32.8%, Mysteel reported. Sulphuric acid, the by-product that had cushioned the negative fees, fell around 11% in September, according to Shanghai Metals Market, citing Oilchem data. Seven smelters are reportedly planning maintenance lasting 30 to 60 days in October and November. Analysts at Zhuochuang estimate that could trim refined supply by about 80,000 mt.

The mines are not helping. Chile logged a 12.8% year-on-year drop in August output, its lowest monthly total in more than 15 years, Mining.com.au reported. Supervisors at BHP's Escondida rejected a contract offer, and Codelco's Radomiro Tomic halted work after a fatal accident. Ivanhoe cut its Kamoa-Kakula target to 290,000-330,000 tonnes from 380,000-420,000, and Anglo, Glencore and Southern Copper have also trimmed forecasts, per Mysteel. The International Copper Study Group now sees 2026 mine supply growth of 1.6%, down from 2.3%.

The metal market feels it. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks have fallen 79% in four months to 38,744 tonnes, their lowest since January 2024. LME copper has gained around 16% over six months. The copper miners fund COPX ended at $85.91 on Friday.

What a clause does to a market

Anglo's leverage over Chinese feedstock is real. The bulk of its Peruvian and Chilean output is sold as unrefined concentrate to custom smelters in China, Japan and Europe, Reuters noted. Teck's copper comes from Quebrada Blanca and Carmen de Andacollo in Chile, Highland Valley in Canada and a 22.5% stake in Antamina in Peru, a combined 453,500 tonnes in 2025. CEO Jonathan Price has written that integrating Quebrada Blanca and Collahuasi will create one of the largest copper complexes in the world.

A guaranteed Chinese allocation would come at someone else's expense. Analysts told Reuters that diverting Anglo Teck's unrefined volumes from the open market could hasten closures at Western processing plants already squeezed by costs. State-mandated destination clauses could also push the industry from annual benchmark pricing toward index-linked spot deals.

Beijing is not the only regulator treating metal flows as a bargaining chip. The European Commission has told MMG it fears its planned $500 million purchase of Anglo's Brazilian nickel operations could divert low-carbon ferronickel away from Europe. MMG has pledged to maintain or increase supplies to the region. The Commission's deadline is Nov. 30.

Canada has already collected its price. It approved the deal after Anglo and Teck agreed to keep the global headquarters in Canada and maintain a TSX listing, and any SAMR commitment would sit alongside those obligations, The Deep Dive reported. The binding Investment Canada Act terms also include at least $4.5 billion of spending in Canada within five years, per Teck's annual report.

That leaves a problem no clause can fix. Chinese smelters want a promise of tonnes that the world's mines are not currently digging. Writing the guarantee will be easy. Anglo would then have to ship the concentrate, and every tonne sent east is one fewer for a smelter in Japan, Germany or Chile.