Iraq's Blackout Summer Looms

Iraq produces about 29 gigawatts of electricity. It needs 55 gigawatts this summer. The math is brutal, and the consequences will be worse.

The country currently generates around 29 gigawatts while normal demand already stands near 40 gigawatts, according to data from early 2026. During summer, demand could rise to 40–55 gigawatts or more , the Financial Times reported. Peak demand is expected to reach roughly 40 gigawatts this summer, compared with current production of approximately 29 gigawatts, according to data from the Washington-based Attaqa energy platform . That leaves a deficit large enough to power a country the size of Australia. For ordinary Iraqis, the crisis translates into long blackout hours during extreme heat. By last summer, before the war had begun, central provinces including Najaf, Karbala, al-Diwaniyah, Babil, and Muthanna were already enduring daily blackouts of up to 12 hours , triggering street protests. This year will be worse.

The immediate cause is obvious: Iranian gas supplies reportedly have ranged between 15 million and 20 million cubic meters per day, far below the roughly 50 million cubic meters Iraq needs to run its gas-fired plants properly , according to the Middle East Forum. Reported strikes on infrastructure connected to Iran's South Pars gas field—the world's largest—caused an abrupt halt in gas flows to Iraq, knocking more than 3,000 megawatts off the national grid almost overnight , Shafaq News reported. Gas imports now stand at roughly 5 million cubic meters per day, barely one-sixth of the 30 million cubic meters Iraq requires , according to Iraq's Ministry of Electricity.

Why Is Iraq Still Flaring the Gas It Desperately Needs?

The deeper problem is structural, and it predates the war by decades. In 2023 Iraq flared about 18 billion cubic meters of gas—over 11% of the global total—enough to generate approximately 33 GW of electricity in a typical gas-fired power plant , according to World Bank data cited by the Baker Institute. That is more gas than Iraq imports from Iran in an entire year. It burns it off at wellheads instead.

Domestic gas production has fallen to below half of its previous levels—a direct consequence of reduced oil exports , Kurdistan24 reported. When the Strait of Hormuz closed in late February, Iraq's oil shipments collapsed. Since the Strait of Hormuz closure on February 28, Iraq's oil export revenues have dropped by nearly 90 percent. For a country where oil accounts for roughly 90 percent of state income, this collapse is a paralysis , according to Attaqa. Less oil production means less associated gas—the natural gas that comes up alongside crude. Iraq could have been capturing that gas for years. It chose not to.

The Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority has pushed the timeline to at least the end of August 2026, with signs that full operation may slip into late 2026 or even 2027 , the Middle East Forum reported. The project was due to begin operating in early 2026, with a first phase supplying 500 megawatts through the Gulf Cooperation Council grid . That 500 megawatts would not solve the crisis, but it would have helped during peak hours. Now it will not arrive in time.

Can LNG Imports Fill the Gap Before Summer Peaks?

Not quickly enough. The Ministry of Electricity acknowledged in April that a contract with Excelerate Energy to install a floating LNG processing platform—one of Baghdad's primary hedge mechanisms—faces delays that could push its commissioning past the June target, directly into peak summer demand , Shafaq News reported. Iraq is scrambling for alternatives—Turkmenistan gas swaps, accelerated interconnections with Turkey and Jordan—but each initiative is moving slower than the thermometer.

Meanwhile, the global LNG market is tightening. Cheniere Energy issued a limited notice to proceed on May 22, 2026, for the construction of Phase 1 of the Stage V natural gas liquefaction facility at the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana, which consists of one liquefaction train with production capacity substantially similar to the six existing trains at the facility , according to an SEC filing. India's energy investment is set to reach a record $170 billion in 2026, driven by rapid expansion in solar power and oil refining. Investment in solar PV grew annually by 25 per cent in this period, and oil refining by 23 per cent , the IEA reported Thursday. India is expanding refining capacity by nearly 15% by 2030, even as it remains heavily dependent on imported crude. That means more competition for every molecule of gas.

Elsewhere, supply is expanding—but not fast enough to ease the crunch. Malaysia's oil and gas producer PETRONAS is exploring for oil at offshore Block 52 in Suriname, which was declared commercially viable for the development of natural gas late last year. "We hope also to somewhere in the coming 18 months to get to a declaration of commerciality on oil as well," Annand Jagesar, managing director of state company Staatsolie, told Reuters on Wednesday. The Sloanea gas discovery in that block is expected to lead to a large development including floating liquefied natural gas facilities if partners PETRONAS and Staatsolie make a positive final investment decision later this year. The first gas would be produced by 2030 . Four years is a long time to wait when the lights are already out.

Europe, meanwhile, is facing its own storage crisis. German state-owned utility Uniper has warned that the country's gas caverns are not being filled fast enough, its CEO said, calling for incentives to avoid a possible shortage in the next winter season. "Storage levels have been rising since March, but it's still far too slow," Michael Lewis told Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Germany's gas caverns are currently filled at 30.64%, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, compared with 38.65% a year ago , Reuters reported Thursday. "If we don't fill the gas storage facilities quickly, we'll have a problem next winter," Lewis said . Higher gas prices in the wake of the Iran war have made storing gas less attractive—traders would rather sell now than inject for later.

Norway is betting the other way. The country's biggest business sector now expects to invest 266 billion Norwegian crowns ($28.64 billion) in 2026, up from 255 billion seen in February , according to Statistics Norway's latest survey released Wednesday. Preliminary estimates for oil and gas investments next year 2026 were seen at 248.6 billion crowns, compared to a previous estimate of 229.4 billion crowns in August , Reuters reported. Norway produces about 2% of global oil and became Europe's largest supplier of natural gas after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 . The investment surge reflects both inflation and a strategic bet: Europe will need Norwegian gas for years, perhaps decades.

What Changed This Week

Iraq's electricity crisis moved from theoretical to imminent. Gas imports from Iran remain at one-sixth of required levels, domestic production has collapsed alongside oil output, and the GCC interconnection that was supposed to provide 500 megawatts this summer will not arrive until autumn at the earliest. Cheniere issued construction notices for new U.S. LNG capacity, but that gas will not flow until 2028. India announced record energy investment, tightening global competition for refining capacity and LNG cargoes. Germany's storage chief warned publicly that Europe is filling caverns too slowly to avoid shortages next winter—a signal that the Iran war's ripple effects will outlast any ceasefire.

What to Watch

Iraq's Ministry of Electricity is expected to release updated summer demand forecasts in early June, which will clarify whether the 55-gigawatt estimate holds or worsens. The Excelerate Energy floating LNG platform, originally due in June, remains the country's best short-term hedge—any further delays will be announced within weeks. Cheniere's final investment decision on the Sabine Pass expansion is expected by early 2027, per the company's SEC filing. Germany's gas storage levels are published daily by Gas Infrastructure Europe; if they do not reach 50% by mid-June, Uniper's winter warning will gain urgency. And in Suriname, PETRONAS and Staatsolie are expected to submit a development plan for Block 52 by late 2026, with a final investment decision to follow—four years before first gas, but a bellwether for South American LNG supply in the 2030s.