Ivanhoe Mines has cut its 2027 copper production forecast for Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo for the second time this year, MINING.COM reported. Freeport announced on November 4, 2026 that its board had approved a $4.5 billion expansion and modernization program at Bagdad in Arizona. The two announcements show how hard new copper supply is to deliver, whether the project is a deep underground ramp-up in Central Africa or a brownfield rebuild in the American Southwest. They also land as Chile's output estimates keep falling and a changed Congress takes shape in Washington.
Ivanhoe Mines: Kamoa-Kakula Guidance Cut Again
Ivanhoe now expects Kamoa-Kakula to produce 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes of copper next year, down from 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes, according to MINING.COM. The 2027 target stood at 500,000 to 540,000 tonnes before a more cautious mine plan emerged in March. Ivanhoe also lowered the expected steady-state annual capacity of the existing Phase 1, 2 and 3 concentrators to 400,000 to 450,000 tonnes as it prepares to add shallow open-pit mining.
Costs are moving the wrong way too. Ivanhoe raised its 2027 cash cost (C1) guidance to $2.50 to $3.00 per pound from $2.10 to $2.50, citing prolonged high diesel prices, lower ore grades and reduced production. Production mining on the eastern side of Kakula is now expected to restart in late March 2028, rather than late 2027, following further geological and engineering work.
The near term is steadier. Kamoa-Kakula produced 76,401 tonnes of copper in saleable products in the third quarter, up from 64,328 tonnes in the preceding three months. Full-year 2026 output is expected to reach approximately 290,000 tonnes. Ivanhoe plans to begin detailed engineering for a Phase 4 concentrator expansion in the first quarter of 2027, but that expansion has not yet received project approval.
The market reaction was sharp. TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison downgraded Ivanhoe to hold from buy and cut his target price to C$9 ($6.42) from C$14. "The path back to about 500,000 tonnes per year has become longer, more capital intensive and more dependent on future execution." he wrote.
Freeport: $4.5 billion for Bagdad
Freeport (NYSE:FCX) said the Bagdad program for its wholly owned copper and molybdenum operation in northwest Arizona would increase annual long-term copper production to over 400 million pounds. That includes incremental production of approximately 225 million pounds per annum. Molybdenum production would rise to over 20 million pounds per annum, an incremental 12 million pounds per annum.
The construction period is approximately 3.5 years, with initial production targeted in mid-2030. Freeport says project break-even economics are supported at a copper price of approximately $4.00 per pound ($20 per pound molybdenum). Approximately 20% of project costs are expected to be funded in 2027, 30-35% in 2028 and the balance in 2029-2030. Bagdad reserves are 2.6 billion metric tons of ore with copper equivalent grade of 0.43%, per the company.
CEO Kathleen Quirk said the expansion is "an important step in advancing Freeport's U.S. copper growth strategy."
The price tag is higher than earlier estimates. MINING.COM reports Bagdad's capital costs are about $1 billion, or 29%, above the $3.5 billion estimate prepared in 2023. BMO Capital Markets analyst Katja Jancic said the approval was "largely anticipated" and that capital intensity, production expectations and timing were consistent with prior communications.
Cochilco: Chile's Copper Outlook Slides
Cochilco, Chile's copper commission, now expects Chilean output to fall 8.4% in 2026, compared with the 2.6% decline projected in August. Chile is expected to produce 4.94 million tonnes of copper this year and 5.08 million tonnes next year, down from Cochilco's August forecasts of 5.27 million and 5.55 million tonnes.
BMO Capital Markets analysts Helen Amos and George Heppel said the downgrade could leave Chile with its weakest annual copper production in more than two decades. Cochilco still raised its average copper price forecast for 2027 by 17% to $5.95 per lb. from $5.10. It forecasts a refined-copper surplus of 144,000 tonnes this year, widening to 215,000 tonnes next year, or 0.8%.
The metal itself was under pressure. Copper fell 2.1% to $14,034 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday, its lowest level since mid-August, as uncertainty over the US midterm elections weighed on metals. The COPX copper miners ETF closed at $71.71, down 1.6% on the day, according to market data.
