Twenty-five million barrels disappeared from U.S. commercial crude stockpiles in five weeks. That would be alarming enough. But the real number is 55 million—masked only by the two largest weekly withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in history, according to OilPrice.com. The week ending May 15 saw a 9.92 million barrel SPR draw, followed by 8.61 million the week prior—back-to-back records that kept commercial inventory losses from looking catastrophic .
The SPR now holds 413 million barrels, down from a 2009 peak of 726.6 million . It currently sits at just 374.2 million barrels , depending on the latest release figures. Either way, the cushion is thin. Global oil inventories are rapidly approaching "minimum operational levels," with Asia already facing acute shortages, analysts warn, as record inventory drawdowns and rising summer fuel demand tighten markets far faster than expected . The system is running on fumes and emergency releases. What happens when both run out?
Can LNG Expansion Outrun the Drawdown?
While oil inventories crater, the U.S. is doubling down on liquefied natural gas. Cheniere Energy Partners signed an engineering, procurement, and construction contract with Bechtel for the first phase of the Sabine Pass LNG expansion in Louisiana, which includes a single train with expected production capacity of over 6 million tonnes per year . Bechtel has received a limited notice to proceed to start early engineering and procurement .
The timing is no accident. Europe is scrambling to replace Russian gas, and U.S. LNG is filling the gap. But building new export capacity takes years, and the current crisis is measured in weeks. The EIA reported that utilities added 92 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ended May 22, below forecasts for a 95 to 96 bcf increase . Natural gas futures climbed on the bullish storage print, with Henry Hub trading at $3.25/MMBtu according to market data—down 2.4% on the day but up sharply from recent lows.
The Sabine Pass expansion is part of a broader U.S. push. The expansion project is being developed for up to three large-scale liquefaction trains with an expected total peak production capacity of up to approximately 20 million tonnes per year . That's enough to supply a mid-sized European country. But first, Cheniere needs regulatory approvals and financing. And the global gas market isn't waiting.
Why Is Norway Spending More While Everyone Else Cuts?
Norwegian oil and gas companies now expect to invest 266 billion Norwegian crowns ($28.64 billion) in 2026, up from 255 billion seen in February, according to Statistics Norway . That's a notable uptick in a year when most producers are trimming budgets. Last year, total investments in oil and gas activity, including pipeline transportation, stood at $28.8 billion, a record high and up by 8.7% compared to 2024, though 2026 investments are still expected to be lower than 2025's actual spending .
The reason? Europe needs Norwegian gas more than ever, and Oslo knows it. Norway has been boosting its gas production since 2022 when it overtook Russia as Europe's top gas supplier . The country is planning its 26th licensing round in frontier areas to stem an expected production decline in the early 2030s. Equinor will drill about 26 wildcat and appraisal wells off the coast of Norway in 2026, mostly in the country's North Sea, as the company looks to spend $6 billion a year over the next ten years to maintain the flow of oil and gas to Europe .
But there's a catch. The expected decline over the next two years is the result of several fields now completed and online, which is reducing investment in development of new resources . Norway's tax incentive package from 2020 drove the recent boom. Without equivalent new projects, the investment level will decline gradually through 2030, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate warns.
