Brent crude futures climbed above $115 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest level since June 2022 , capping a dramatic week that saw one of OPEC's most important members walk away from the cartel just as global oil markets grapple with the largest supply disruption in history.

The United Arab Emirates said Tuesday it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ alliance, with effect from May 1, 2026 , according to the Emirates News Agency. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in an interview that the disruption caused by the war created an opportune time for the move , Bloomberg reported. The UAE had been constrained by production quotas for years— OPEC had most recently limited the UAE's oil output to about 3.2 million barrels per day, while the country's production capacity is closer to 5 million barrels per day , according to Robin Mills, CEO of Dubai-based consultancy Qamar Energy.

Hormuz Blockade Enters Third Month

The UAE's exit comes as the war in Iran enters its ninth week with no clear end in sight, shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has been completely reshaped, heavily disrupting global markets and supply chains for oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other essential products , CNN reported. Before the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in late February about 3,000 vessels typically passed through the Strait of Hormuz each month. Oil tankers passing through accounted for an estimated 15 million barrels per day of crude and other oil product exports. But since the war began, traffic has been reduced to a trickle, with just 154 vessels recorded crossing in the entire month of March , according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

Halting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has caused "the largest oil supply disruption in the history" of the global market – bigger than the 1970s oil shocks – according to the International Energy Agency , Al Jazeera reported. Iraqi, Saudi, and Emirati production remains shut in at roughly 9.1 million barrels per day in April, according to the EIA, the largest physical disruption in the modern history of the global crude market , according to Finance Magnates.

The U.S. has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports since mid-April, while Iran continues to control access through the strait itself. US forces have directed at least 38 vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port since that blockade began , according to US Central Command.

TotalEnergies Rides Volatility to Record Quarter

The oil price surge is delivering windfall profits to major producers. TotalEnergies SE on Wednesday reported $5.4 billion in net profit adjusted for nonrecurring items for the first quarter (Q1), up 41 percent from the prior three-month period and 29 percent against Q1 2025 as liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales volumes increased amid oil volatility , according to Rigzone.

The earnings surge prompted the French energy giant to raise its dividend for Q1 2026 to EUR 0.9 ($1.05) per share. That is up 5.9 percent against its previous rate . The company also authorized continuation of share buybacks up to $1.5 billion in the second quarter. Production averaged 2.55 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboepd) in the January-March 2026 quarter, stable quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year despite war-related shutdowns in Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates , Rigzone reported.

Meta's Gas-Fired AI Bet Expands

While geopolitical turmoil roils oil markets, the energy industry is also responding to surging power demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure. Meta's agreement with New Orleans–based Entergy, announced March 27, is to build and finance seven new power plants in Louisiana. That comes on top of plans approved last year to build three gas power plants for the sprawling AI hub , Fortune reported.

Approval from the state's Public Service Commission would enable Entergy to generate 7,400 megawatts in total for the tech company with its 10 gas-fired plants, the equivalent of over half of all power it currently produces statewide , according to The Times-Picayune. The Louisiana Public Service Commission voted in mid-April to fast-track the approval process for the additional seven plants, with a final vote set for November.

The project has drawn criticism over its reliance on fossil fuels and potential impact on electricity rates, but Entergy is emphasizing that Meta is paying for the projects, rather than shifting the costs to other ratepayers , Fortune noted.

What Comes Next

According to market data, WTI crude traded at $71.50 per barrel on Tuesday, while Brent stood at $75.20—though these figures appear outdated given Wednesday's surge past $115. Commodity prices could rise even higher if hostilities escalate or supply disruptions from the war last longer than projected. Brent oil prices could average as high as $115 a barrel in 2026 in a scenario where critical oil and gas facilities suffer more damage and export volumes are slow to recover , the World Bank warned in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook released Monday.

JPMorgan warns Brent could overshoot to $150 if Hormuz remains shut into mid-May. Goldman Sachs flagged $135 as an extreme demand-destruction peak and $115 to $120 as a Q4 risk scenario , according to Finance Magnates analysis. For now, the combination of the UAE's OPEC exit and the continuing Hormuz impasse has traders bracing for extended volatility in energy markets.