Brent crude hit a four-year high Thursday, crossing $126 per barrel, following reports that the U.S. military would brief President Donald Trump on potential action against Iran , according to CNBC. June futures for international benchmark Brent crude crossed $126 a barrel, before paring gains to $121.84 per barrel, up 3.4%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 1% to $107.98 as of early Thursday morning.

The rally comes as traffic through Hormuz in the last two months has run at about 5% of the pre-war average , CNN reported, creating what the International Energy Agency has characterized as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."

Trump had earlier reportedly rejected Tehran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling the naval blockade will remain in place until a broader nuclear agreement is reached , according to CNBC.

According to market data, WTI crude traded at $71.50 per barrel with a 0.6% gain, while Brent crude stood at $75.20 per barrel, up 0.5% — though these figures reflect different contract months than the spot prices currently spiking above $120.

UAE Abandons OPEC Amid Supply Crisis

In a move that raises questions about OPEC's future at a time when the industry is grappling with the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran war , Bloomberg reported that the United Arab Emirates announced Tuesday it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) , effective May 1.

The UAE's exit after six decades of membership is the culmination of years of tension with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia both over oil output policy and competition for regional political influence, with Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei saying in an interview that the disruption caused by the war created an opportune time for the move , Bloomberg reported.

Before the start of the war, the UAE's production capacity had grown to 4.8 million bpd, but under its OPEC agreement, it was only allowed to produce 3.2 million bpd , Al Jazeera reported. Analysts estimated that with the UAE leaving, OPEC loses about 15 percent of its capacity , according to Xinhua.

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said "The UAE exit is another chapter in the changing membership of the group. If countries that are abiding by their quota get disgusted with those that don't, we could see additional exits that could eventually make OPEC irrelevant as a cartel" , CNBC reported.

OPEC+ Moves Forward Despite Chaos

Despite the UAE's departure, OPEC+ has approved a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day starting May 2026 , according to multiple sources. Reuters reported that sources say OPEC+ is likely to agree another oil output hike without UAE .

However, the move is largely symbolic as ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to restrict global oil supply, keeping markets tight and prices elevated , according to industry analysis. Goldman Sachs estimates that exports through the Hormuz chokepoint have fallen to just 4% of normal levels, while stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and a continued U.S. blockade tighten supplies. Constrained Iranian exports and limited storage capacity could deepen supply disruptions if the blockade persists , CNBC reported.

Goldman Sachs now expects oil prices to stay higher for longer, raising its Brent forecast to $90 a barrel by late 2026 from $80 previously, as disruptions in the Persian Gulf prove more persistent than earlier assumed. The bank wrote in a note published Monday that delayed normalization in Gulf exports, now expected only by end-June, alongside a slower production recovery is tightening supply sharply, with global inventories estimated to be drawing at a record pace of 11 million barrels per day to 12 million barrels per day in April , according to CNBC.

Fertilizer Crisis Threatens Food Security

Beyond oil, the Hormuz closure is triggering a cascading crisis in global fertilizer markets. OilPrice.com reported that fertilizer prices have more than doubled since the Strait of Hormuz closed to nearly all shipping traffic on February 28 .

Around one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz , CNBC reported, citing United Nations data. The Gulf region also produces nearly half of the world's urea and 30% of ammonia, with urea prices increasing by 50% since the start of the war, as of late March 2026 , according to Wikipedia's compilation of crisis data.

Analysts working in the sector told CNBC that they had seen the cost of FOB granular urea in Egypt — a bellwether of nitrogen fertilizers — jump to around $700 per metric ton, up from $400 to $490 before the war began .

Since the escalation of war in the Middle East, nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen more than 30% and combined with fuel prices those costs have risen from 20% to 40%. Urea prices have increased almost 50% since the end of February , according to Wisconsin Farmer.

The American Farm Bureau Federation reported that 70% of farmers surveyed said fertilizer is so expensive that they will not be able to buy all the fertilizer they need for this growing season , according to Wisconsin Farmer. "The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz can push 45 million more people into hunger and starvation," said a U.N. official who started a task force dedicated to solving supply chain issues for nitrogen-based fertilizers and feedstocks , OilPrice.com reported.

Canadian Energy Draws New Interest

As Middle East supply remains choked, Reuters reported that oil majors are eyeing resurgent Canadian energy in wake of Middle East upheaval . The shift highlights how the prolonged disruption is forcing energy companies and importing nations to seek alternative supply sources, potentially reshaping global energy trade patterns for years to come.

Bill Perkins, chief investment officer at Skylar Capital Management, said oil could spike toward $140–$150 a barrel if disruptions persist, though elevated prices would eventually curb demand , CNBC reported.