The United Arab Emirates announced its decision to quit OPEC and OPEC+ to focus on "national interests", dealing a heavy blow to the oil-exporting groups at a time when the US-Israel war on Iran has caused a historic energy shock and rattled the global economy , according to Al Jazeera. The move, which will take effect on Friday, reflects "the UAE's long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile" , state media reported Tuesday.

The UAE's shock decision to leave OPEC is reverberating across global energy markets, exposing fractures in the powerful oil cartel as production quotas risk prompting other members to follow suit , CNBC reported. The timing couldn't be worse for the cartel: international benchmark Brent crude futures rose about 6% to close at $118.03 per barrel Wednesday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures advanced nearly 7% to settle at $106.88 per barrel , according to CNBC.

The departure strips OPEC of its third-largest producer. Before the start of the war, the UAE's production capacity had grown to 4.8 million bpd, but under its OPEC agreement, it was only allowed to produce 3.2 million bpd , Al Jazeera reported. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Alotaiba said that the UAE's decision to leave OPEC would give it "flexibility" to not only meet demands of customers but also to set its strategy in terms of exports, noting that Abu Dhabi's national oil company, ADNOC, has previously announced it plans to raise oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027 , according to CNN.

America Becomes a Net Oil Exporter

In a historic reversal, the United States became a net exporter of crude for the first time since World War Two as the country shipped a record volume of oil to refiners scrambling for supplies after the Iran war, leading to large drops in domestic inventories, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday , Reuters reported.

Total U.S. crude exports climbed to a record 6.44 million barrels per day, marking a 1.64 million bpd rise from the week prior , according to Reuters. Net imports of crude oil, or the difference between imports and exports, fell by 1.97 million bpd to minus 688,000 bpd, the first time it turned negative on a weekly basis, meaning outflows surpassed imports , the EIA reported.

Europe and Asia have increasingly become dependent on crude from the Americas after the U.S. and Israel's war on Iran triggered the largest-ever disruption to the global energy market and halted shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies , Reuters reported. The surge in exports came at a cost: the large exports pushed U.S. crude inventories down by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels in the week ended April 24, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 231,000-barrel draw .

OPEC+ Moves Forward Without the UAE

Despite the UAE's departure, seven members of OPEC+ are likely to agree another increase in oil output targets when they meet on Sunday, three sources with knowledge of discussions told Reuters, lowering the size of the increase to take into account the United Arab Emirates' exit from the producer group . However, few of the producers can actually boost production due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran , Reuters reported.

"The UAE exit is another chapter in the changing membership of the group," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "If countries that are abiding by their quota get disgusted with those that don't, we could see additional exits that could eventually make OPEC irrelevant as a cartel," he told CNBC via email . Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, flagged Kazakhstan as a key candidate, noting its persistent overproduction. "Kazakhstan has been vastly over producing last year, and so they may be seeing this as a potential out for them to leave the group as well," Smith said, adding that Nigeria could also be one to watch out for , CNBC reported.

Fertilizer Crisis Deepens

Beyond oil, the Strait of Hormuz closure is triggering a global fertilizer crisis with potentially catastrophic consequences for food security. Since the Strait of Hormuz closed to nearly all shipping traffic on February 28, fertilizer prices have already surged enormously, more-than doubling from their previous levels , OilPrice.com reported.

The Gulf region produces nearly half of the world's urea and 30% of ammonia, with about one-third of the world's fertilizer passing through the strait. Urea prices increased by 50% since the start of the war, as of late March 2026 , according to Wikipedia's documentation of the crisis. Since the escalation of war in the Middle East, nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen more than 30% and combined with fuel prices those costs have risen from 20% to 40%. Urea prices have increased almost 50% since the end of February , Wisconsin Farmer reported.

The Food and Agriculture Organization estimated, for the first half of 2026, that prices of fertilizers would be 20% — up to 20% higher. And this is now — now the war has been much prolonged since that estimate was made , according to Adam Hanieh, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute, speaking to Democracy Now.

Market Data Shows Volatility

According to market data, WTI Crude traded at $71.50 per barrel on Wednesday with a 0.6% gain, while Brent Crude stood at $75.20 per barrel, up 0.5%. However, these figures represent a significant pullback from the week's highs. Henry Hub Natural Gas fell 2.4% to $3.25/MMBtu, per Polygon data.

The disconnect between current spot prices and the futures prices reported earlier in the week highlights the extreme volatility gripping energy markets. "The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing," Trump told Axios on Wednesday. "They are choking like a stuffed pig, and it is going to be worse for them" , CNBC reported, as the president indicated he would maintain the U.S. naval blockade against Iran until a nuclear deal is reached.

Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d in March, with continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and ongoing restrictions to tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz leading to the largest disruption in history , according to the International Energy Agency's April 2026 Oil Market Report.