Thursday, June 11, 2026Vol. III · No. 162Subscribe
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Markets · Analysis

The Demand Side Cracks

From Britain's EV showrooms to China's refineries, the world's appetite for oil is shifting faster than markets expected—and electricity deregulation isn't delivering the savings it promised.

The Demand Side Cracks
PhotographFrom Britain's EV showrooms to China's refineries, the world's appetite for oil is shifting faster than markets expected—and electricity deregulation isn't delivering the savings it promised.

SpaceX is targeting a $75 billion raise at a fixed IPO price of $135 per share—more than twice Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion record from 2019 , OilPrice.com noted. The symbolism cuts deeper than the numbers. When Aramco listed in 2019, it redefined what 'big' meant in equity markets. On June 12, 2026, SpaceX will make it look like a warm-up act , according to FXEmpire. For nearly seven years, oil held the IPO crown. Tonight it loses it to rockets and satellites.

The timing is no accident. While SpaceX prepares to list, the energy system that made Aramco the world's most valuable company is showing cracks on the demand side. Not from supply shocks or geopolitical drama—those have kept $71.50/bbl and $75.20/bbl elevated, per market data—but from something quieter and more structural. People are buying different things.

Can Electric Vehicles Really Move Markets This Fast?

Britain offers the clearest answer. Battery electric vehicles captured 27.1% of the UK new car market in May 2026, while registrations rose 31.2% year-on-year to 41,346 vehicles , according to New AutoMotive. 86,120 new electric cars were registered in March 2026—a new UK record , the RAC reported.

The catalyst? Oil prices. Colin Walker, head of Transport at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: "These figures come against the backdrop of the Iran war and rapidly rising petrol and diesel prices, fuelling a surge of interest in electric vehicles" . Motorpoint, a London-listed used car supermarket, told City AM it had seen EV sales more than double in recent months—what the company called "a watershed moment" for the car industry.

The shift is self-reinforcing. Higher fuel costs push buyers toward EVs. More EVs on the road reduce gasoline demand. Lower demand eventually pressures refining margins, which can paradoxically keep pump prices elevated in the short term as refiners cut runs. The UK now has over 2 million fully electric cars on the road, around 5.9% of the roughly 34 million cars , Zapmap data show.

China's experience suggests where this leads. China's combined consumption of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel of almost 8.1 million barrels per day in 2024 was 2.5% below 2021 levels , the IEA reported. The total electric vehicle fleet is already displacing over 1 million barrels per day in implied oil demand—equivalent to roughly the daily oil production of Oman. That level is likely to rise by around 600,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months , according to Rhodium Group analysis.

Gasoline demand in May 2025 fell to roughly the same level as May of 2022, when Shanghai was almost entirely locked down under zero-COVID , Rhodium noted. The difference: no lockdowns this time. Just 12 million new energy vehicle sales annually and a transport fleet that's pivoting to power-based energy faster than forecasters expected.

Why Are Electricity Bills Rising in States That Promised Competition?

The irony is sharp. As transport electrifies to escape volatile oil markets, households are discovering that electricity deregulation—sold a generation ago as a path to lower prices—has delivered the opposite.

In the past five years alone, the generation portion of the standard service residential electric bill in Columbus, Ohio, has increased by 110% , according to research from The Ohio State University's Energy Markets and Policy Group. U.S. electricity rates have risen 17% in four years, from 15.04¢/kWh in 2022 to 17.65¢/kWh in 2026. Year-over-year increases were +6.4% (2023), +3.0% (2024), +5.0% (2025), and +2.0% (2026, through Feb) , per Electric Choice data.

The problem, Ohio State researchers found, isn't competition—it's the lack of it. The process which sets the default supply rate is not very competitive. Less competition means the middleman companies bidding in those auctions can bid, and win, higher prices—raising electric bills and increasing their profit margin . MIT research reached a similar conclusion: Electric deregulation in the U.S. has resulted in increased prices from market power, and this effect has dominated cost efficiencies .

Energy deregulation promised lower prices through competition. But instead, consumers got an army of middleman marketers. And, those middlemen have been taking their cues from a bidding process that often has too few participants to keep prices low , the Ohio State study concluded.

The timing couldn't be worse. This sustained climb reflects fuel cost inflation, grid modernization investments, and surging demand from data centers and electric vehicle adoption , according to Electric Choice. EVs were supposed to insulate drivers from oil price shocks. Instead, they're exposing them to a different set of market failures in electricity.

What About the Natural Gas Wild Card?

Natural gas sits at the center of both stories. It's the marginal fuel setting power prices in most U.S. markets, which means $3.25/MMBtu directly influences what EV owners pay to charge, per market data. And it's emerging as an unexpected beneficiary of the space economy.

As SpaceX heads toward what could be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, Elon Musk's rocket launch goals are emerging as a potential natural gas demand center large enough to rival a mid-size LNG terminal's call on feedgas by the early 2030s , Natural Gas Intel reported. The company's Starship program and associated data center operations— Starlink (connectivity; 69% of 1Q revenue) is the company's financial engine, while rocket launches (space; 13%) and Grok/X/Colossus data centers (AI; 17%) are currently high cash burn segments , per Renaissance Capital—will require massive amounts of reliable power.

Some of the season's hottest weather and forecasts for more on the way have not been enough to propel forward natural gas prices being restrained by ample supplies , Natural Gas Intel noted. Production keeps rising even as new demand centers emerge. The question is whether space infrastructure and AI can absorb supply growth faster than transport electrification destroys gas demand in the power sector.

What Changed This Week

Three data points crystallized a broader shift. Britain's May EV registrations hit 27% market share—a level most forecasters didn't expect until 2027. China's gasoline demand continued falling despite no COVID restrictions, confirming the transport fuel plateau is structural, not cyclical. And SpaceX priced the largest IPO in history, displacing an oil company from the record books while planning energy infrastructure that could rival a small country's electricity demand. The common thread: energy demand is fragmenting faster than supply can adapt, creating winners and losers that don't fit the old oil-versus-renewables narrative.

What to Watch

SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq on June 12 under ticker SPCX—watch whether the IPO's success accelerates capital flight from traditional energy into space and AI infrastructure. The UK's Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders will release full June EV sales data in early July; another month above 25% market share would put Britain ahead of its Zero Emission Vehicle mandate trajectory despite industry complaints. China's National Bureau of Statistics publishes May refinery processing data later this month—analysts expect another decline in gasoline output as refiners adjust to structural demand destruction. And Ohio legislators are reviewing the state's electricity deregulation framework following the Ohio State research; any move toward re-regulation in a major market would signal a broader rethinking of 1990s-era energy policy.

Coverage aggregated and synthesized from leading energy-sector publications. See linked sources within the article.

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