Oil & Gas Markets
The week's dominant story was the dramatic reversal in oil prices as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing.
Crude oil was on track for a 10% weekly drop, the largest in a month, with Brent down 10% on the week
, according to Trading Economics.
Volumes surged as vessels openly navigated the Strait of Hormuz following progress toward a US-Iran peace deal, restoring Persian Gulf exports to roughly 75% of prewar levels, with Saudi Arabia beginning to load tankers at its Ras Tanura terminal
, according to market data.
According to market data provided by Polygon.io, WTI Crude traded at $71.50/bbl (+0.6%) and Brent Crude at $75.20/bbl (+0.5%) as of Friday.
An interim agreement between the United States and Iran to end the war in the Middle East could pave the way for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the biggest breakthrough in negotiations since the start of the conflict sending oil prices tumbling to their lowest levels since early March
, according to the IEA's June Oil Market Report.
Global oil demand is forecast to decline by 1.1 mb/d y-o-y in 2026, representing a downgrade of 700 kb/d compared with the IEA's May Report, as 2Q26 deliveries plunged by 5 mb/d y-o-y in the face of higher fuel prices and disruptions to product availability
, according to the IEA. The agency expects growth to rebound to 2 mb/d in 2027 as trade flows normalize.
On the production front,
OPEC cut its forecast for 2026 growth in global crude demand to 970,000 barrels per day, the second consecutive downward revision, while seven nations in the bloc approved a production increase of 188,000 bpd for July
, according to Inspenet.
For the week ending June 19, U.S. refineries processed 17.1 million barrels per day of crude oil, down 81,000 b/d from the previous week, operating at 96.1% capacity utilization, with gasoline production averaging 9.5 million b/d and distillate production at 5.2 million b/d
, according to the EIA.
In natural gas markets, Henry Hub Natural Gas traded at $3.25/MMBtu (-2.4%) according to market data. A significant development emerged in the Permian Basin, where
Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express expansion has been delivering volumes to downstream interconnects since June 9, with Waha cash prices averaging -$0.24/MMBtu in June, up from about -$3.30/MMBtu in May
, according to AEGIS Hedging and Natural Gas Intel.
Natural gas production growth in the Permian Basin has outpaced crude oil production growth in recent years, with marketed natural gas production increasing 60 percent between 2021 and 2025 compared with 39 percent growth in oil production, as rising gas-oil ratios have increased associated gas production
, according to the American Gas Association citing EIA data.
According to Natural Gas Intel, expansions of natural gas pipeline capacity out of the Permian Basin are on pace to substantially outpace production growth through 2030, materially boosting basis prices at Permian locations. Meanwhile, according to the same source, June is shaping up to be the strongest month on record for US natural gas exports to Mexico as Sempra Infrastructure's Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG export terminal ramps up.
Renewable Energy Developments
Renewable energy continued its strong performance in the US market. According to Electrek citing new EIA data, renewables accounted for 30.0% of total US electrical generation during the first third of 2026, up 2.2% year over year.
In the first five months of 2026, utility-scale solar generation surpassed natural gas generation in CAISO, with solar electricity generation increasing 21% compared with the same period in 2024, while natural gas generation decreased by 60%
, according to the EIA.
Utility-scale solar, wind, and battery storage will add more than 80 gigawatts of new generating capacity in the US by February 28, 2027, with renewable energy's share of total US utility-scale generating capacity projected to grow from 33.4% as of March 1, 2026 to 36.6% by February 28, 2027, with solar adding 42,628.6 MW and wind growing by 14,507.4 MW
, according to Electrek citing EIA data.
Policy developments continued to shape the sector.
On June 6, 2026, a U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia vacated guidance from the Department of the Treasury that had eliminated the ability for wind and solar projects to prove their eligibility for certain tax credits by showing that 5% or more of the total cost of the project has been spent
, according to Utility Dive. However,
given the remand, the potential for an appeal of the ruling and possible procedural grounds on which it may be overruled, and the timeline between the decision and the July 4 deadline, law firm Foley said it is not advisable to rely on the 5% safe harbor for such projects
, according to the same source.
According to Oil & Gas 360 citing Investing, Trump administration clean energy tax credit cutoff is driving a project rush as developers race to secure federal subsidies before deadlines, though prices are set to soar.
Wind and solar investments in the first half of 2025 fell 18% to nearly US$35 billion compared to the same period in 2024, though renewables still dominated US capacity growth, accounting for 93% of additions (30.2 gigawatts) through September 2025, with solar and storage making up 83%
, according to Deloitte's 2026 Renewable Energy Industry Outlook.
Mining & Critical Minerals
The week's most significant mining development came from Panama.
The Panamanian government published the SGS audit on the shuttered Cobre Panama mine, which showed an 87.73% compliance rate, with technical operations performing best while risk and environmental liabilities were weakest
, according to Industrial Info.
SGS Panama Control Services delivered the final review on June 19 after evaluating 370 commitments tied to the mine
, according to The Deep Dive.
The audit does not mean the mine will reopen, but officials said the report will inform the debate and government's decision making
, according to Industrial Info.
According to OilPrice.com, Canada and Japan are considering cooperation in critical mineral projects and a potential plan of joint stockpiling of key metals as the two G7 economies look to reduce China's outsized dominance in the sector. This follows broader international efforts to diversify critical mineral supply chains.
Lithium demand alone is projected to rise by 353% between 2024 and 2040
, according to UNCTAD's June 2026 Global Trade Update.
In 2025, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for 74% of global cobalt mine production, Indonesia for 67% of global nickel mine production and China for 69% of rare earth mine production, with China also dominating refining for rare earths, lithium and cobalt, while Indonesia accounts for 43% of global nickel refining capacity
, according to the same report.
Copper is the standout performer in the critical minerals market June 2026, with the SMM 1# cathode benchmark reaching $13,665.02/tonne — up approximately 5% month-on-month, extending the April record run driven by persistent supply-side constraints and accelerating infrastructure demand
, according to Critical Minerals News.
NdPr oxide is benchmarked at $90,317.58/tonne on 1 June — down approximately 35% from the $136–$139/kg range recorded at the April close, following an exceptionally rapid run-up where NdPr had gained around 160% year-to-date through end-April
, according to the same source.
In equipment news, according to International Mining, Sandvik has received a major order to deliver crushing and screening equipment for LKAB's new sorting plant in Malmberget, Sweden, valued at approximately SEK 175 million. According to Mining Technology, Alliance Nickel started vat leach test-work at its NiWest project, while Star Minerals acquired a gold project in Merredin, Western Australia.
Week Ahead Preview
Markets will be closely watching for further developments in US-Iran peace negotiations and their impact on Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on July 7 to review market conditions and production levels, according to the organization's statement.
The July 4 deadline for wind and solar projects to qualify for clean energy tax credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will be a critical milestone for the US renewable sector. Investors will also be monitoring Panama's government response to the Cobre Panama audit findings and whether restart discussions will formally commence.
Natural gas markets will focus on summer cooling demand and LNG export growth, particularly from Mexico's Energía Costa Azul facility. The ongoing ramp-up of Permian Basin pipeline capacity will remain a key factor for regional gas pricing dynamics.
This weekly recap is compiled from coverage by OilPrice.com, Natural Gas Intel, Electrek, International Mining, Trading Economics, IEA, EIA, UNCTAD, Utility Dive, Deloitte, Critical Minerals News, Industrial Info, AEGIS Hedging, American Gas Association, The Deep Dive, Mining Technology, Inspenet, and Oil & Gas 360. For daily updates, visit stakeandpaper.com.
