Key Takeaways
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Oil prices fell more than 4% to below $84 per barrel on Friday as Iran's Mehr News Agency reported a 14-point draft agreement including the lifting of oil sanctions and Tehran's commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, according to Trading Economics
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Solar supplied 12.8% of U.S. electricity in May for the first time, surpassing coal's 12.2% share, according to global energy think tank Ember
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Goldman Sachs cut its 2027 Brent crude price forecast to $80 per barrel, citing stronger supply from non-OPEC producers and China's accelerating shift away from oil, according to OilPrice.com
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U.S. LNG export flows fell to 16.5 bcfd in June from 17.1 bcfd in May due to maintenance at Golden Pass LNG and Freeport LNG facilities in Texas, according to Trading Economics
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The Department of Energy awarded $67 million to Colorado School of Mines and ElementUSA for construction of a rare earth processing facility in Louisiana, according to InvestorNews
Oil & Gas Markets
Iran Peace Deal Hopes Drive Price Volatility
Crude oil fell more than 4% to below $84 per barrel on Friday, extending losses to an eight-week low as hopes grew that the US and Iran could reach a peace agreement and end the conflict that has disrupted energy markets, according to Trading Economics
.
Iran's Mehr News Agency reported that a draft deal includes a commitment from the U.S. to lift oil sanctions and a pledge from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, according to CNBC
.
However, uncertainty persisted throughout the week.
President Trump said in a Truth Social post Friday morning that the reported terms "bears no relation to the truth," calling the Iranians "very dishonorable people to deal with," according to CNBC
.
Brent futures fell as much as 5.1% to trade at the lowest level since the early days of the war in March, according to Bloomberg
.
According to OilPrice.com,
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated at a Bloomberg Energy event in Houston on Friday that the U.S. Military is helping move 7 million barrels per day out of the Persian Gulf
, helping explain why oil prices haven't reached $150 per barrel despite the ongoing crisis.
The EIA's June Short-Term Energy Outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed in the near term, with oil shipments through the strait resuming in the third quarter of 2026, though it will likely take several months to ramp up to pre-conflict traffic, which is not expected until early 2027
.
Demand Forecasts Diverge Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
OPEC forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.5 million barrels per day in 2027, according to its June Monthly Oil Market Report
. However,
the EIA now forecasts that global oil demand will decrease by an average of 1.1 million b/d in 2026, compared with its expectation last month for 0.2 million b/d growth, citing the impact of the Hormuz closure
.
Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Brent crude price forecast to $80 per barrel, assuming that just over 10% of demand weakness persists as China's shift to alternatives like EVs accelerates, according to OilPrice.com
.
The bank estimated that consumption of gasoline and related products in China may have fallen by as much as 20% year-over-year in April, according to OilPrice.com
.
Natural Gas Markets Face LNG Maintenance Headwinds
According to Natural Gas Intel,
Golden Pass LNG's first train has yet to find its footing nearly two months after shipping an inaugural cargo, with feedgas flows averaging a fraction of rated capacity as unplanned maintenance hampers the ramp-up
.
Average U.S. LNG export flows fell to 16.5 bcfd in June from 17.1 bcfd in May due to maintenance at plants including Golden Pass LNG and Freeport LNG in Texas, according to Trading Economics
.
According to market data, Henry Hub natural gas traded at $3.25/MMBtu on Friday, down 2.4% for the week.
The EIA forecasts U.S. marketed natural gas production will grow by 3.3% in 2026, or about 3.9 billion cubic feet per day, with the United States expected to produce 4.6 Bcf/d more natural gas in 2027 than previously forecasted
.
For the week ending June 11, lower 48 natural gas production growth remained strong year-over-year, up 2.6 percent over the same week in 2025, according to the American Gas Association
.
The EIA reported a net injection of 108 Bcf into underground natural gas storage for the week ending June 5, bringing inventories to 2,686 Bcf, which stands 6.0 percent above the five-year average, according to the American Gas Association
.
According to Natural Gas Intel,
Mexican energy executives warned that a lack of local pipeline flexibility, storage capacity, and secondary markets causes major inefficiencies and makes natural gas buyers rely heavily on US infrastructure
.
Renewable Energy Developments
Solar Achieves Historic Milestone
In May, for the first time, solar supplied 12.8% of the nation's electricity compared to coal's 12.2%, its fourth-lowest monthly share ever, according to data released by global energy think tank Ember
.
Solar supplied 12.8% of US electricity last month while coal accounted for 12.2%, according to a report from Ember, which analyzed monthly and hourly data from the US Energy Information Administration, according to Bloomberg
.
The American Clean Power Association reported that U.S. developers brought 6.4 gigawatts of new utility-scale solar, wind, and energy storage capacity online in Q1 2026, including 3.625 GW of utility-scale solar, 2.382 GW of energy storage and 415 MW of wind, according to PV Magazine USA
.
The additions meant the capacity of utility-scale solar has now exceeded that of wind as the largest source of clean power generation capacity in the country, according to PV Magazine USA
.
States won by Trump in the 2024 election accounted for 74% of all solar capacity installed in the first quarter of 2026, with Texas, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Arizona and Mississippi ranking among the top 10 states for new solar additions, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association
.
Texas now accounts for over one quarter of all installed clean energy capacity at 96.4 GW, placing it on the verge of becoming the first state to install 100 GW, according to PV Magazine USA
.
Cost Competitiveness Improves
IRENA's new report found that firm levelized costs of electricity for solar-plus-storage range from $54/MWh to $82/MWh in high-irradiance regions, with firm solar-plus-storage costs dropping from above $100/MWh in 2020 to $54/MWh to $82/MWh by 2025 at high-quality resource sites, according to PV Magazine
.
Since 2010, total installed costs declined by 87% for solar and 55% for onshore wind, while battery storage costs fell 93%, according to IRENA
.
On June 6, 2026, a U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia vacated guidance from the Department of the Treasury that had eliminated certain methodologies for wind and solar projects to prove their eligibility for tax credits, according to Utility Dive
.
With that guidance reversed, there might be a new route for certain wind and solar projects to prove they commenced construction by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's July 4, 2026, deadline preserving their eligibility for the 45Y clean energy production tax credit and 48E clean energy investment tax credit, according to Utility Dive
.
Corporate Renewable Deals
According to Utility Dive,
Meta expanded its US solar portfolio by inking a power purchase agreement with Zelestra, building on the existing partnership between the tech giant and renewable energy company
. According to PV Magazine,
Trinasolar launched a 620 W TOPCon 'Shield' module for the North American market, featuring n-type technology and reinforced mechanical durability
.
Mining & Critical Minerals
U.S. Advances Domestic Processing Capacity
The Department of Energy awarded $67 million to Colorado School of Mines and ElementUSA for construction of a rare earth processing facility in Louisiana, with the facility designed to recover rare earth elements from alumina tailings, separate rare earth oxides and refine them into rare earth metals, according to InvestorNews
.
Policymakers increasingly appear to recognize that processing, not mining, represents the true strategic bottleneck, according to InvestorNews
.
American Critical Minerals obtained the US Bureau of Land Management's final potassium prospecting permits, set to take effect on June 1, 2026, according to Mining Technology
.
The permits involve seven drill holes at the Green River Project in Utah, which are fully bonded, with a reclamation bond of $549,000 accepted by both the BLM and the State of Utah, according to Mining Technology
.
Geopolitical Competition Intensifies
China picked a state firm to help coordinate mining deals abroad, with the move appearing to be one of the most consequential critical minerals developments of 2026, according to InvestorNews
.
China's Minerals Resources Group, established in 2022 to centralize China's purchasing power in global iron ore markets, now appears poised to play a broader role across strategic mineral supply chains, with Beijing pursuing a more disciplined approach to securing critical mineral resources abroad, according to InvestorNews
.
The shift is turning critical minerals from a traditional mining business into a geopolitical contest, according to global law firm Gibson Dunn, as reported by MINING.COM
.
China expanded export controls on rare earth elements, materials and technologies in October 2025, though Beijing suspended the measures a month later as part of a broader understanding with Washington, the framework remains available for future use, according to MINING.COM
.
Governments have signed more than 70 critical minerals agreements and policy frameworks since 2021, but a review of agreements signed through May 2026 shows that more than 60% remain non-binding memorandums, partnerships or cooperation frameworks, according to MINING.COM
.
Industry Developments
According to PR Newswire,
Silvercorp reported a Mineral Reserve increase of 50% in tonnes and 20% in silver ounces for the Ying Mining District
. According to GlobeNewswire,
Barrick published its 2025 Sustainability Report and Performance Data
.
According to International Mining,
Sandvik is delivering the first Sandvik CH662 cone crushers to a platinum mining project in South Africa's Bushveld Complex, signalling Africa's growing appetite for state-of-the-art mining technology
.
Week Ahead Preview
Markets will be closely watching for any formal announcement of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement, with
Bloomberg reporting that a deal could be signed in Switzerland as soon as Sunday, with Trump and other world leaders set to gather for the G7 summit next week in Évian-les-Bains, on France's eastern border with Switzerland, according to CNBC
.
Energy traders will monitor LNG facility maintenance schedules as Golden Pass and other facilities work to restore full capacity. The July 4 deadline for renewable energy tax credit eligibility under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will be a key focus for solar and wind developers.
According to market data, WTI crude traded at $71.50/bbl on Friday (up 0.6% for the week), while Brent crude stood at $75.20/bbl (up 0.5%). The energy sector faces continued volatility as geopolitical negotiations progress and supply chain dynamics evolve.
This weekly recap is compiled from coverage by Trading Economics, CNBC, Bloomberg, OilPrice.com, Natural Gas Intel, EIA, PV Magazine, Utility Dive, Ember, Solar Energy Industries Association, IRENA, InvestorNews, Mining Technology, MINING.COM, International Mining, American Gas Association, and other industry sources. For daily updates, visit stakeandpaper.com.
