Weekly Energy Market Recap: Jun 26 - Jul 3, 2026

Key Takeaways

Canada announced plans to build a new 1-million-barrel-per-day oil pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific coast, with construction potentially beginning as early as September 2027, according to Reuters

Crude oil fell to $68.56 per barrel on July 3, down 26.31% over the past month, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, according to Trading Economics

China issued mandatory energy consumption and efficiency standards for the solar power industry, effective January 1, 2027, to accelerate elimination of outdated production capacity, according to Caixin Global

U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net exports reached a record 5.8 million barrels per day in April, driven by increased global demand for U.S. supply amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions, according to the EIA

Natural gas rose to $3.24 per MMBtu on July 3, with the EIA reporting energy firms injected 87 billion cubic feet into storage for the week ending June 26, according to Trading Economics

Oil & Gas Markets

Crude oil held steady around $69 per barrel on Friday, hovering near levels last seen before the Middle East conflict erupted in late February, as commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover amid progress in US-Iran talks, with Saudi Arabia's crude exports rebounding to about 90% of pre-war levels, according to Trading Economics . The United Arab Emirates restored its exports to more than 3.9 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia ramped up oil exports to Asia, bringing total daily flows through the Strait of Hormuz above 10 million barrels, according to Trading Economics .

The week's most significant development came from Canada, where Prime Minister Mark Carney announced plans to build a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific coast alongside Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, whose government said construction of the 1-million-barrel-per-day pipeline would begin as early as September 2027, according to Reuters . The federal government through Trans Mountain and the government of Alberta through its Alberta Petroleum Marketing Corporation would be majority owners of the pipeline, with Pembina holding a 10% stake through construction and the opportunity for up to an additional 10% once the project enters operation, according to BOE Report . Alberta's government delivered a submission to the Major Projects Office on July 2, 2026, and partnered with Trans Mountain Corporation and Pembina Pipeline to further develop the project, according to the Alberta government .

President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing well after mediators from Qatar and Pakistan held separate meetings with US and Iranian officials in Doha on Wednesday, with the decline in oil prices driven by increased supply as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated following progress in peace negotiations, according to Trading Economics and LiteFinance . However, upcoming peace talks in Qatar face delays due to the funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which begins on July 4, with geopolitical friction remaining high as Tehran demands maritime control over the strait while US President Donald Trump reiterated his stance against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, according to Trading Economics .

Disruptions to crude oil and refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have led to increased demand for U.S. supply, pushing U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net exports in April to a record 5.8 million b/d, with demand for U.S. diesel and jet fuel in particular rising, and overall U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net exports expected to average 4.2 million b/d this year, up 1.4 million b/d from 2025, according to the EIA . Diesel and jet fuel wholesale prices are expected to rise the most—more than 60% in 2026 and 40% in 2027, respectively—compared with the pre-conflict February STEO, while the wholesale gasoline price is expected to increase by around 50% in 2026 and nearly 40% in 2027, according to the EIA .

According to market data, WTI Crude traded at $71.50/bbl (+0.6%) and Brent Crude at $75.20/bbl (+0.5%) as of July 3, 2026.

Natural Gas Markets

US natural gas futures dropped below $3.2 per MMbtu, driven by robust domestic supplies, falling oil prices, and shifting weather patterns, with the Energy Information Administration reporting energy firms injected a larger-than-expected 87 billion cubic feet of gas into storage for the week ending June 26, keeping total stockpiles roughly 6.2% above historical averages, according to Trading Economics . June production in the Lower 48 states averaged a strong 110 billion cubic feet per day, approaching record highs, while average flows to major liquefied natural gas export terminals reached 17.3 billion cubic feet per day, according to Trading Economics .

The Henry Hub spot price rose slightly in May as warmer weather increased electric power sector demand, but despite the rising demand, natural gas prices remain relatively flat in 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand, with rising crude oil prices driving crude oil production higher in the forecast, which results in growth in associated natural gas production, according to the EIA . The EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price will average about $3.34/MMBtu in 2H26 and $3.46/MMBtu in 2027, according to the EIA .

A severe heat wave is sweeping across the country, forcing residents to heavily rely on air conditioning, with temperatures in New York City forecast to hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit, threatening to tie a 1966 record, and with meteorologists predicting above-normal heat through mid-July, gas-fired plants, which provide roughly 40% of US electricity, are expected to burn significantly more fuel, according to Trading Economics .

According to market data, Henry Hub Natural Gas traded at $3.25/MMBtu (-2.4%) on July 3, 2026.

Renewable Energy Developments

China has issued new mandatory energy consumption and efficiency standards for the solar power industry to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, with the stricter requirements taking effect on Jan. 1, 2027, representing a state-led effort to curb excessive competition and ease a severe supply glut that has hammered solar panel prices for more than three years, according to Caixin Global . InfoLink reported that prices for centralized TOPCon modules in China fell to 0.7 yuan per watt in the week ending July 2, with weak demand and transaction prices ranging from 0.65 to 0.8 yuan per watt, according to Caixin Global .

In 2025, global annual renewable capacity additions increased by 16%, reaching 800 GW despite challenges linked to supply chain strains, grid connection delays, financial pressures and policy shifts, marking the 23rd consecutive year that renewables set new expansion records, with solar PV accounting for more than three-quarters of new renewable capacity additions worldwide, followed by wind (20%), according to the IEA . Renewable capacity expansion in China continued to increase in 2025, reaching a new record with nearly 500 GW of additions, accounting for over 60% of global growth, with China alone commissioning nearly 370 GW of solar PV and 117 GW of wind capacity—13% and 48% higher, respectively, than in 2024, according to the IEA .

In the United States, wind and solar investments in the first half of 2025 fell 18%, to nearly US$35 billion (prior to the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act), compared to the same period in 2024, though renewables dominated US capacity growth, accounting for 93% of additions (30.2 gigawatts) through September 2025, with solar and storage making up 83%, according to Deloitte . On June 6, 2026, a U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia vacated guidance issued in August by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, which had eliminated the ability for wind and solar projects to prove their eligibility for certain tax credits by showing that 5% or more of the total cost of the project has been spent, according to Utility Dive .

Terra-Gen announced its 125-MW Lockhart III solar project in San Bernardino County, California, has reached commercial operation, with capacity contracted under long-term agreements with corporate buyers and California load-serving entities, and the company is also building a fourth phase at the same site—Lockhart IV (80 MW)—which is expected to reach commercial operations in the third quarter of 2026, according to POWER Magazine .

Mining & Critical Minerals

Lithium demand alone is projected to rise by 353% between 2024 and 2040, according to UNCTAD . In 2025, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for 74% of global cobalt mine production, Indonesia for 67% of global nickel mine production and China for 69% of rare earth mine production, with China also dominating refining for rare earths, lithium and cobalt, and Indonesia accounting for 43% of global nickel refining capacity, according to UNCTAD .

The US Army struck deals with several companies to build critical minerals processing plants on military bases around the country, a first-of-its-kind initiative by the Trump administration to boost domestic production of key materials, with REalloys Inc., Titan Mining Corp., ioneer Ltd. and Energy X reaching agreements with the Pentagon to build facilities for processing rare earth minerals, graphite, lithium and boron, according to Bloomberg .

A new Department of Energy award will help Georgia Tech lead a regional effort to identify, recover, and reuse materials essential to energy, manufacturing, and national security, with the $7.5 million award positioning the Institute to advance supply chain solutions that span resource discovery, processing, recycling, and circular materials management, according to Georgia Tech . Selected by DOE's Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation, Georgia Tech will lead the Critical Minerals in the Atlantic Seaboard Plain (CM-MAP) project, which builds on DOE's Carbon Ore, Rare Earth, and Critical Minerals (CORE-CM) initiative and will examine potential resources across the Atlantic coastal plain, focusing on sedimentary deposits, including kaolin, bauxite, heavy mineral sands, and phosphates, as well as legacy mining residues, coal combustion byproducts, and other unconventional and secondary resources, according to Georgia Tech .

Almonty Industries announced the relocation of its corporate headquarters from Toronto, Ontario to Dillon, Montana, positioning the company closer to U.S. government agencies, defense contractors, and industrial partners following its Nasdaq listing and US$90 million IPO in July 2025 and a US$129 million follow-on financing in December 2025, with the move accompanying the acquisition of Montana's Gentung Tungsten Project, expected to restart production in 2026, according to Morningstar .

Week Ahead Preview

Investors will be watching for the EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook release scheduled for July 7, 2026, which will provide updated forecasts on oil and natural gas markets. Key economic data releases include the July 3 U.S. Independence Day holiday, July 6 June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and July 14 June Consumer Price Index (CPI), according to LiteFinance .

The ongoing U.S.-Iran peace negotiations in Qatar remain a critical factor for energy markets, with any developments likely to impact crude oil prices and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Canada's Major Projects Office is expected to begin consultations on the proposed West Coast oil pipeline, with a decision on national interest designation anticipated by October 1, 2026.

This weekly recap is compiled from coverage by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Trading Economics, Reuters, Bloomberg, Caixin Global, PV Magazine, IEA, Deloitte, UNCTAD, Georgia Tech, BOE Report, and other industry sources. For daily updates, visit stakeandpaper.com.