Cheniere signed a $4.69 billion EPC deal with Bechtel for Train 7 and a new re-liquefaction unit at Sabine Pass , the largest U.S. LNG contract inked since the Iran war began. That is not a hedge. That is a bet that global gas demand will stay tight for years -- and that American exporters can fill the void left by Qatar's shuttered terminals.
TotalEnergies made the decision to buy large amounts of Middle East crude in March after its traders noticed the U.S. Navy amassing ships near the Gulf in February , CEO Patrick Pouyanne told Le Figaro on Thursday. The French major reportedly pocketed over $1 billion on the trade, according to the Financial Times. It was a gamble: "It could have turned out badly, because had the Strait of Hormuz been shut immediately we would have been physically prevented from filling up our cargoes in the region," Pouyanne said. Instead, Total took delivery at Fujairah, just outside the Gulf, and rode oil prices from $70 to nearly $170 per barrel in a matter of weeks.
Three months into the Hormuz closure, the market is sorting winners from losers with brutal efficiency. Russia's crude exports are tracking near the highest levels so far this year, as the Kremlin continues to bank a dividend from the three-month-long war in the Middle East , Bloomberg reported. Four-week average crude shipments were 3.66 million barrels a day in the period to May 24, little changed from 3.65 million in the 28 days to May 17. Volumes so far this year are about 100,000 barrels a day higher than 2025 . Moscow is selling at roughly $90 per barrel, compared to around $50 from before the Iran war , according to CNBC.
Can Non-OPEC Producers Really Fill the Gap?
Not quickly. And not completely. Cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 mb/d of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock , the IEA reported in May. Atlantic Basin crude oil exports, now heading primarily to hard-hit East of Suez markets, have increased by 3.5 mb/d since February, with notable gains from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Venezuela . But that still leaves a gap of more than 10 million barrels per day.
Norwegian oil and gas companies have raised their investment forecasts for 2026 and 2027 compared to estimates three months earlier. The companies now expect 2026 capex to clock in at NOK 266 billion ($28.64 billion), up from the NOK 255 billion projected in February, while 2027 spending is expected to come in at NOK 207 billion , OilPrice.com reported. Among the primary drivers of the capital spending is a NOK 20 billion redevelopment project spearheaded by ConocoPhillips to restart production across three previously closed fields in the Greater Ekofisk Area . Norway produces more than 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, split evenly between crude and gas -- and it is one of the few producers outside the Gulf with spare capacity to ramp up quickly.
Then there is Brunei. Brunei, a sultanate on the Southeast Asian island of Borneo with a population of just under 500,000, has increased exports of crude oil, refined products and LNG since the war started on February 28 in order to capture the high prices on offer in Asia , Reuters reported. Not only has Brunei increased export volumes, it will be enjoying far higher prices, especially for refined products. Jet fuel prices in Singapore ended at $139.18 a barrel on Tuesday, up 49% from before the war .
But the real story is what is happening to inventories. Over the last five weeks, commercial U.S. crude inventories have dropped by roughly 25 million barrels. The entire year's build effectively disappeared in a little over a month , OilPrice.com reported. Commercial crude inventories declined by 7.9 million barrels for the week ending May 15, far exceeding analyst expectations. At the same time, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by another 9.9 million barrels, marking the eighth consecutive week of declines , according to the EIA.
