India bought most of its crude from the Middle East until the war broke out at the end of February. Three months later, the world's third-largest oil importer is buying from Venezuela, Brazil, Angola, and Nigeria instead. In April and May, Indian refiners raised imports from these countries to make up the shortfall, preliminary data from Kpler show.
Venezuelan crude exports to India surged sharply in May 2026, overtaking traditional suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and the United States. That's not a minor adjustment. That's a complete rewiring of supply chains that took decades to build.
Overall, India imported 4.57 million barrels per day of oil in April, unchanged from March, but down 15.5% from a year earlier. The composition tells the real story. Russia remained India's top oil supplier, followed by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with Brazil the fourth-largest supplier and Venezuela ranked fifth.
Venezuela is on course to become the fourth-largest supplier in May, Kpler data showed. A country that was barely on India's radar a year ago now ranks among its top five sources.
Can Australia Force Gas to Stay Home?
While India scrambles for new suppliers, Australia is trying to keep its own energy from leaving. Australia's requirement for liquefied natural gas producers to reserve a fifth of exports for local use is set to apply to all projects and existing contracts, according to a draft policy released by the government on Monday. The policy, which takes effect in July 2027, means three liquefied natural gas export projects on the east coast operated by Origin Energy, Shell and Santos will be affected by the reservation scheme.
The proposal has faced a backlash from the industry, which says it would stymie investment and damage the nation's reputation as a reliable exporter.
Twenty percent of export volumes represents around 60% of the east coast gas market, according to industry sources. That's not a tweak. That's a structural intervention that could crowd out smaller domestic producers entirely.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen told reporters the policy was "a carefully calibrated model which ensures that Australia's national best interests are put first," adding it would "disconnect Australian gas from spikes in international prices." The timing is no accident. The Argus Gladstone free-on-board netback price climbed to A$21.23/GJ by 1 May 2026, surging from A$13.63/GJ on 27 February 2026 — a gain of more than 55% over approximately two months. Domestic prices barely moved. That divergence gave Canberra the political cover it needed.
What About the Fuel No One Talks About?
Coal is having a quiet moment. April imports of thermal coal grew 40% to 5.7 million tons in Korea and 2.5% to 7.9 million tons in Japan.
While trading off peaks, higher coal demand since the start of the conflict maintained futures 22% higher year-to-date, with the tightness in global LNG availability maintaining thermal coal futures over 20% higher.
The math is simple. Japan finds coal economically preferable when spot LNG prices exceed $10.24 per million British thermal units, while South Korea's threshold sits at $10.45/mmBtu.
Current spot LNG for North Asia delivery stands at approximately $10.06/mmBtu as of early May 2026, still marginally below both switching thresholds. But forward pricing tells a different story. Forward pricing for Brent-linked LNG in Japan for July 2026 sits at $12.73/mmBtu, well above both switching thresholds.
Disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz have raised fuel costs, making coal a more competitive option for price-sensitive Asian buyers. The irony is thick. A war that was supposed to accelerate the energy transition may be extending coal's lifespan instead.
