Chile Bets Big, Zimbabwe Bans Raw Ore

Chilean mining companies SQM and Codelco are paving the way to boost output at their sprawling lithium partnership by more than 70%, targeting as much as 470,000 metric tons of annual production . That compares with guidance for this year of roughly 270,000 tons , Bloomberg reported this week. The $3 billion bet on direct lithium extraction technology in the Atacama Desert represents the clearest signal yet that the world's battery supply chain is entering a new phase—one where processing technology matters as much as the ore itself.

Lithium rose to 165,250 CNY/T on July 3, up 1.69% from the previous day, and is still 165.25% higher than a year ago , according to Trading Economics. Prices have surged 95 percent in two months, with spot battery-grade lithium carbonate rising from about $13,433 per metric ton in early December to $26,278 by late January . The rally reflects more than just demand—it reflects a supply chain being fundamentally restructured by governments that no longer trust the old rules.

Can Automakers Escape the Copper Trap?

Ferrari and BMW's decisions to switch from copper to aluminum wiring follow similar moves by Tesla and Chinese EV makers and reflect a broader industry trend forecast to affect around 2% of global copper demand this year , JPMorgan estimates. Aluminum currently costs about $3,100 a ton, or about a quarter the price of copper . The move saves up to 20% of the total wiring weight , Ferrari's communications executive told Reuters.

Record copper prices in late January, peaking close to $15,000 per metric ton, added weight to the case for switching to aluminum . But the shift carries deeper implications. JPMorgan estimates that as much as 6% of annual copper demand could be replaced by aluminum by 2030, up from 2% this year . Analysts at consultancy Zhuochuang forecast that about 25% to 30% of components currently made from copper, by metal volume, could be switched to aluminum in the power, automotive and home-appliance sectors by 2030 .

The substitution isn't without trade-offs. Aluminum's conductivity reaches only 61% of copper's, so wires must be sized roughly 1.6 times larger to move the same amount of current , Reuters noted. But when the price ratio sits above 3.5-to-4.0, the engineering challenges become worth solving. China's government has encouraged companies to switch to aluminum through a March 2025 policy paper , accelerating a trend that could reshape demand for both metals over the next decade.

Where Does Washington Find Its Cobalt?

The new US ambassador to New Zealand and several Pacific island nations said on Friday that securing Cook Islands seabed minerals was a top priority. Jared Novelly said critical minerals had moved rapidly up his agenda over the last year , Reuters reported. "Fast forward to February, March of this year, critical minerals, and particularly in the Cooks, is either 1A or 1B of my priorities," Novelly told reporters.

The Cook Islands' waters contain deposits of polymetallic nodules, sought for batteries and other technologies . The self-governing territory boasts one of the largest known cobalt deposits in the world. The mineral plays a crucial role in the production of electric vehicle batteries as well as military aircraft components . In February, the Cook Islands and the US signed a non-binding framework on critical minerals research and supply-chain security, including deep-sea minerals in Cook Islands waters .

The urgency is geopolitical. Cobalt metal prices have trended steadily higher since September of last year, entering 2026 at $56,414 per metric ton. Prices began last year near nine year lows amid a lingering glut, but surged after the DRC, responsible for roughly three-quarters of global supply, imposed an export ban in February , according to Investing News. The export ban, and later the quota system, drove global prices to $55.29/KG by Q1 2026, a gain of more than 120 percent across five quarters .

Washington's pivot to the Pacific reflects a hard lesson: China accounts for nearly 70% of global production of critical minerals processing. When a single country in Central Africa can double cobalt prices with a policy announcement, supply chains built on efficiency alone become strategic liabilities.

What Changed This Week

SQM and Codelco filed an environmental impact study for a $3 billion overhaul targeting as much as 470,000 metric tons of annual lithium production —a 70% jump that would cement Chile's position as the lithium supplier betting on technology, not just volume. Rio Tinto finalized new financial arrangements with the Mongolian government regarding the $18 billion Oyu Tolgoi copper mining project, including a 50% reduction in management fees and a 2.5 percentage point decrease in the interest rate , the Financial Times reported. And Zimbabwe suspended exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates with immediate effect , forcing miners to build processing capacity locally or lose access to one of Africa's richest deposits. Three continents, three different strategies—all aimed at capturing more value before the ore leaves the ground.

What to Watch

Chile's Novandino Litio partnership plans to submit an environmental impact study to regulators in June , a filing that will reveal whether direct lithium extraction can scale at the speeds the market now demands. Zimbabwe's complete ban on unprocessed concentrates takes effect in January 2027 , giving Chinese-backed refineries less than seven months to commission processing plants or face a supply disruption that could ripple through battery supply chains. Protesters blocked copper exports from Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi mine for almost a day in June, and later in the month Rio Tinto and the government agreed new financial terms —a reminder that even $18 billion projects operate at the pleasure of sovereign governments. The era of digging and shipping is over. The era of refining and retaining has begun.