Rare Earths Rise From Coal Waste

A $150 million rare earth venture will extract critical minerals from West Virginia coal waste, with Greenbrier Smokeless Coal, Flash Metals USA, and AmForge Corporation partnering to recover materials from millions of tons of coal tailings , the West Virginia Secretary of State's Office announced Tuesday. The project will use a patented process to recover rare earth minerals from coal slurry located at permitted coal mine disposal sites , turning decades of environmental liability into strategic assets.

The United States currently depends on foreign sources for most of these critical materials , and the timing reflects a broader scramble to secure domestic supply. Three pilot facilities in West Virginia are each currently producing four to five tons of rare earth oxides a year from acid mine drainage, according to Yale E360. The new $150 million facility would scale that output dramatically—and it's not alone.

Can Military Bases Solve the Processing Bottleneck?

The US Army struck deals with several companies to build critical minerals processing plants on military bases around the country, with REalloys Inc., Titan Mining Corp., ioneer Ltd. and Energy X reaching agreements with the Pentagon to build facilities for processing rare earth minerals, graphite, lithium and boron , Bloomberg reported last week. The awards are the first time the Army has sited commercial mineral processing facilities on American military installations .

REalloys will construct a rare-earth separation facility at the Tooele Army Depot in Utah, and production will be stockpiled on-site for military use , according to the Army statement. Titan Mining will build and operate a graphite purification facility at either Pine Bluff Arsenal in Arkansas or Anniston Army Depot in Alabama . According to US Geological Survey, the US has 50 percent net import reliance for Lithium, 80 percent for rare earths like Dysprosium and Terbium and 100 percent for Graphite .

The economics are unusual. In lieu of cash payments, the "lessee directly funds and executes infrastructure improvements on the host installation" , the Army said. The companies are expected to start building the plants as early as 2027, with mineral production expected to begin by 2028 .

Why Are Automakers Abandoning Copper?

While governments chase rare earths, automakers are quietly rewriting the rules for another critical metal. Consultancy Zhuochuang estimates that by 2030, between 25% and 30% of industrial components currently made from copper could be replaced by aluminum in the power, automotive, and home appliance sectors, with JPMorgan projecting that aluminum substitution could displace as much as 6% of annual global copper demand by 2030 , Reuters reported.

LME copper futures approached an all-time peak of nearly $15,000 per ton in January 2026, and despite a recent pullback, prices remain more than 4.2 times higher than aluminum . Tesla pioneered the use of aluminum wiring in modern passenger vehicles with the launch of the Model Y in 2019 and later expanded its use in the Cybertruck . Now European luxury brands including Ferrari and BMW have recently confirmed their entry into this camp .

In March 2025, China—the world's largest consumer of industrial metals—issued policy guidance encouraging manufacturers to substitute aluminum for copper across several industries . The shift carries consequences beyond cost. Copper's higher electrical conductivity allows manufacturers to use thinner cables while delivering greater power, and copper also offers superior flexibility, making it better suited for compact spaces, repeated movement, and demanding electrical systems . For these reasons, aluminum is expected to remain concentrated in applications where weight savings outweigh conductivity advantages .

What's Driving the Battery Recycling Surge?

The global EV battery recycling market has reached $1.4 billion this year, up from $1 billion a year ago, with demand expected to grow an average 45% per year through 2033, reaching $19 billion , according to Grand View Research. The growth isn't speculative. EV sales have grown from around 3.2 million units in 2020 to 21 million units this year , the International Energy Agency reported, and batteries last an average of 5-15 years, meaning some of the batteries in products sold this decade are already pegged for retirement .

A share of the volumes initially expected to become available for recycling may materialise later than previously anticipated, and in different locations, as the growth of second‑hand EV markets may reduce feedstock availability, which could require a recalibration of expectations regarding the contribution of recycling to domestic critical mineral supplies in the coming years , the IEA cautioned in its Global EV Outlook 2026.

Colorado became the first state to mandate EV battery recycling this month, banning disposal and implementing mineral-recovery targets over the next few years , Resource Recycling reported. Annual end-of-life and production scrap is rising from approximately 1.4 million tonnes in 2026 to 5-7 million tonnes per year by 2030, with recycled metals expected to cover 10-15% of global nickel and cobalt demand for batteries, and 5-10% of lithium .

Can Mongolia Rewrite the Rules?

Rio Tinto and the Mongolian government agreed new financial terms for the Oyu Tolgoi mine in June, following months of negotiation , according to Wikipedia's updated entry. The revisions include cutting the interest rate on government loans used to fund Mongolia's 34% stake to below 6% and eliminating Rio's $150–200 million annual management fee , industry sources told bondblox.

The mine produced 345,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate in 2025, up 61% year on year , EU Reporter noted. Oyu Tolgoi deposits contain an estimated 2.7 million tonnes of copper and 1.7 million ounces of gold . Mongolia says it has yet to receive dividends from the project due to high financing costs, delays, and cost overruns that have pushed expected payouts to around 2037 .

The renegotiation reflects broader tensions. The push for renegotiation reflects rising resource nationalism and strong copper prices, while the government has warned it could raise export taxes on copper if talks fail . In June 2026, protestors blocked copper exports from the mine for almost a day .

Meanwhile, Chilean miner Antofagasta has agreed to sell term copper concentrate supplies to some Chinese smelters at spot-indexed prices with a guaranteed floor, marking a break with a decades-old practice under which miners sell term supplies at fixed treatment and refining charges that serve as a global benchmark , industry information provider SMM reported Wednesday.

What Changed This Week

West Virginia coal waste became a rare earth feedstock. The Pentagon opened four military bases to commercial mineral processors for the first time in U.S. history. Antofagasta broke a decades-old copper pricing convention, shifting leverage from smelters to miners as concentrate shortages persist. The common thread: supply chains that were theoretical six months ago are now being built with real capital and real timelines.

What to Watch

Construction at Tooele Army Depot, Pine Bluff Arsenal, Anniston Army Depot, and Red River Army Depot is expected to begin in 2027, with first production targeted for 2028. The West Virginia rare earth hub will begin operations in Greenbrier County before expanding to neighboring states—watch for permitting timelines and offtake agreements. Colorado's battery recycling mandate takes effect this month; other states are likely to follow. And Mongolia's June agreement with Rio Tinto sets a precedent for resource-rich nations renegotiating deals struck during commodity downturns—expect similar pressure in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Peru.