Saudi Pipeline Bypass Meets Houthi Missiles

The World Petroleum Congress is meeting in a hall near King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. That airport was struck by Houthi missiles over the weekend and, according to a new Notice to Airmen reported by AnewZ, stays closed until 17 October.

Delegates came to hear how Saudi Arabia plans to get its oil past the Strait of Hormuz. They heard it while the capital absorbed the attacks that now threaten that plan.

Opening the congress, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister, said, "the word fear in the Saudi dictionary does not exist." Asharq Al-Awsat reported. The events of the past five days complicate the boast. Al Jazeera counts four strikes on the Riyadh airport in that span. Saturday's missile killed 12 people and wounded more than 300, according to the Saudi-led coalition, and India's embassy said an Indian citizen's death on Sunday lifted the toll to 13. Sunday's hit on terminals 3 and 4 killed a Pakistani resident and injured 11, per Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority. Reuters, as cited by AnewZ, puts deaths from Houthi attacks on the kingdom at more than 15 over two weeks.

Prince Abdulaziz told delegates the events were serious and that Saudi Arabia's response must be "equally serious," AnewZ reported.

The plan on the table

The minister's blueprint has three stages, per a Reuters report carried by Al Arabiya. The first is quick. Converting a domestic gas pipeline to carry crude could add up to 1.2 million barrels per day of export capacity within seven to eight weeks. The conversion is temporary: Aramco can use the line for oil until May, then must clean it and return it to gas service before summer.

The second stage adds investment, which could bring the total addition to as much as 3 million barrels per day. The third is the long game. Upgrades to East-West pumping stations and other projects could lift the kingdom's ability to divert shipments away from its Gulf and Red Sea maritime routes to around 10 million barrels per day over two to three years. Overall, Riyadh is aiming for pipeline export capacity of as much as 10 million barrels per day.

Aramco has not announced final investment decisions or construction schedules for additional export routes, Oil & Gas 360 reported. Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said only that the company is studying export options and storage outside the kingdom with the energy ministry. Aramco has already named storage sites in Japan and South Korea as part of its overseas supply network.

The bottleneck is not only the pipe

The scale of the task shows in Argus's tally from Kpler data. About 5.5mn b/d of Saudi crude shipped through Hormuz from Gulf ports last year, while only 760,000 b/d left via the Red Sea. The kingdom produced 9.48mn b/d in 2025 and holds a maximum sustainable capacity of 12.2mn b/d.

Aramco typically sends around 2mn b/d to its Red Sea refineries, which leaves roughly 5mn b/d of pipeline capacity for exports from Yanbu, per Argus. The terminals are the tighter constraint. Nominal loading capacity at Yanbu's two terminals is about 4.5mn b/d, and market sources put the effective figure nearer 4mn b/d. The most Yanbu has ever loaded in combined volume was 1.7mn b/d in August 2024, Argus reported.

Ships add another snag. Fully laden VLCCs can load at Yanbu but cannot cross the Suez Canal. They must discharge part of the cargo into the 2.3mn b/d Sumed pipeline and reload at Sidi Kerir.

The sea lane behind the pipe

Then there is geography. Argus calls Bab el-Mandeb a significant risk for redirecting Asia-bound cargoes from Yanbu, because of continued Houthi threats. Al Jazeera describes the strait off the Yemeni coast as a crucial alternative waterway to Hormuz. The Houthis seized key areas along it last month, and the Saudi-led coalition has been trying to take them back.

The politics could make it worse. US President Donald Trump says he is weighing whether to join the fight against the Houthis. Al Jazeera reported fears that American intervention could push the group to halt shipping through Bab al-Mandeb, which would squeeze oil flows out of the Gulf further.

Hormuz itself has partly recovered. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said crude flows are back to between 80% and 90% of pre-conflict levels, averaging 13 million to 14 million barrels per day. Refined product flows out of the Gulf sit at just 25% to 35%, he said, as reported by Asharq Al-Awsat.

A market with little cushion

Nasser has been blunt about the stakes. He called the Gulf disruption "the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced," as quoted by Argus. He also said commercial inventories offer only a limited buffer and should not be treated as a permanent answer. Replenishing stocks while meeting demand could take up to two years, AnewZ reported, and pressure on crude supplies will last until Hormuz fully reopens.

Prices reflect the strain. Brent traded at $106.80 and WTI at $93.78 on Monday, each up 2% after the Houthi attacks and tanker strikes near Hormuz, OilPrice.com reported. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $90 from $85, and estimates geopolitical uncertainty adds a risk premium of slightly more than $20 per barrel, per Oil & Gas 360.

The oil majors' absence at the congress is its own signal. The chief executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron and BP had been expected, Reuters reported via AnewZ. None appeared on the agenda, and BP confirmed it had cancelled.

Riyadh is leaning on neighbors too. On Sunday Prince Abdulaziz signed energy agreements with Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt, and the Qatar deal covers possible joint pipelines for energy exports, per the Saudi Press Agency as cited by AnewZ. Kuwait's oil minister said in August that Kuwait was already discussing a new export pipeline with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states.

Pipelines take years to build. The Houthis have already shown they can reach the capital in days, and the pipeline's outlet runs along the coast they are fighting to control.