Scrap Wars: Trump Locks Down Minerals

Trump signed an order Thursday giving federal officials the power to block exports of old batteries and other electronic waste filled with critical minerals , according to Reuters. The administration hopes to funnel those materials—especially tungsten and shredded battery parts known as black mass—to domestic recyclers , White House officials told the wire service. The order doesn't ban anything yet. It does not immediately impose new export restrictions . But Commerce now has authority to institute export restrictions on recoverable critical minerals and materials , and the signal is unmistakable: the move is the latest effort by the Trump administration to shore up supplies of critical minerals, which are crucial to producing a range of cutting-edge technologies and products, and to reduce US dependence on China for those elements , Bloomberg reported.

The timing is deliberate. Copper prices climbed closer to record highs this week as tightening global supplies, falling inventories, and mine disruptions in Chile reinforced expectations of a widening supply deficit , according to Mining.com.au. On the London Metal Exchange, copper rose nearly 1% to $13,750 a tonne, extending its gain to 3% for the month and 10% this year . Copper stockpiles in LME warehouses fell by more than 10,000 tonnes this week and are down about 40% since mid-April . When the metal that powers AI data centers, EVs, and grid infrastructure is this tight, governments stop treating industrial scrap as waste and start treating it as strategic inventory.

Can Domestic Recyclers Handle What Stays Home?

The executive order is built on a bet: that keeping black mass, rare-earth magnets, and tungsten swarf inside U.S. borders will create a domestic recycling industry capable of feeding American manufacturers. That industry barely exists. In 2025, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for 74% of global cobalt mine production, Indonesia for 67% of global nickel mine production and China for 69% of rare earth mine production , UNCTAD reported in June. China also dominates refining for rare earths, lithium and cobalt . Recycling is no different. Most e-waste that leaves the U.S. today ends up in Chinese or Southeast Asian facilities that have spent decades building the hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical capacity to extract value from mixed feedstocks at scale.

The administration is betting that restricting exports will force capital into domestic processing. In 2026, federal investment will likely expand beyond rare earth elements to include other high-risk minerals like antimony and tungsten , Mining.com noted in December. Companies that can demonstrate more reliable and cost-effective processing technologies will be well-positioned for the next wave of federal funding . But building that capacity takes years, not months. In the interim, the order could strand material that would otherwise have been recycled abroad—creating a domestic glut with nowhere to go.

What About the Mines That Just Got Green Lights?

Canada Nickel has secured federal approval to proceed with its proposed Crawford polymetallic mine in Ontario, paving the way for a construction decision next year amid a countrywide push to accelerate critical minerals development , Mining.com reported Friday. It's the first time that a mining project has been approved under Canada's Impact Assessment Act since it was amended in 2019 . The government says the project could create $5 billion in investment and 4,000 new jobs , according to Canada's National Observer. Crawford has an estimated post-tax net present value of $2.8 billion and an after-tax internal rate of return of 17.6% , the company said. Canada Nickel has already lined up $2.5 billion in financing for Crawford, including $500 million in debt from Export Development Canada, another C$500 million from an unnamed leading Canadian financial institution, and about $600 million in tax credits tied to critical minerals and carbon capture .

Ottawa's approval comes as the federal government gave Canada Nickel the go-ahead to build a new nickel mine in Northern Ontario, as part of Canada's efforts to accelerate major resource projects to counter the economic pain from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war , The Globe and Mail reported. The contrast is sharp: while Washington locks down scrap flows, Ottawa is fast-tracking primary production. Both are responses to the same problem—China's grip on critical mineral supply chains—but they reflect different theories of how to solve it. Canada is betting on new mines. The U.S. is betting on recycling and trade restrictions. Neither is wrong. But neither is sufficient alone.

Meanwhile, the miners already producing are printing money. Freeport-McMoRan reported adjusted earnings of $0.74 a share on revenue of $7.03 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, compared with analysts' estimates of $0.59 a share and $6.71 billion , according to Investing.com. Copper sales in Q2 2026 were 710 million lbs, gold sales 123k oz, and molybdenum sales 25 million lbs; average realized prices: copper $6.17/lb, gold $4,520/oz, molybdenum $28.75/lb . Vale reported that for the three months ended June 30, 2026, net operating revenue rose year-on-year, but quarterly net income fell to 7.0 billion reais from 12.2 billion reais in 2025 , reflecting higher operating costs, TipRanks noted. Vale improved its outlook for base metals, cutting its all-in copper cost estimate to a range of $0–500 per tonne and all-in nickel costs to $10,000–11,500 per tonne, and nudged up forecast production volumes, with copper output now seen at 360–380 kt and nickel at 185–200 kt in 2026 .

What Changed This Week

Trump issued a Presidential Determination on July 30, 2026, under Section 101 of the Defense Production Act for recoverable critical minerals and materials . Canada's Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin issued a positive decision regarding the Crawford project on July 31, marking the first mining approval under the amended Impact Assessment Act. Copper prices climbed closer to record highs as tightening global supplies, falling inventories, and mine disruptions in Chile reinforced expectations of a widening supply deficit . Deadly storms that have disrupted copper mines in Chile landed in a market already distorted by U.S. tariff expectations, tighter scrap availability in China and surging demand for refined metal used in power grids and AI infrastructure , CNBC reported.

What to Watch

Any specific requirements will depend on actions taken by the Department of Commerce . Watch for Commerce to publish proposed rules on e-waste export restrictions—likely targeting black mass and rare-earth magnet scrap first. Canada Nickel will continue advancing detailed engineering, project financing and the remaining provincial and federal permits required ahead of planned construction ; a formal construction decision is expected in 2027. The Commerce Department's June 30, 2026 review of refined copper tariff decisions is the single most important near-term variable , according to Expert Market Research—though that date has passed, any announcement would trigger immediate price moves. Chinese buying is expected to ease in August, reducing the flow of metal into the country and slowing withdrawals from LME inventories, while the largest unknown in the market remains what the U.S. administration will do over Section 232 tariffs , ING's commodities strategist told CNBC.